Abstract
Rainfall in arid and semi-arid environments is a major determinant of system dynamics which results in seasonal fluctuations in forage production. The influence of fixed and variable stocking strategies on the distributions of forage deficit period and net return for various range condition scenarios were examined using a bioeconomic model. Although the risk of forage deficits and financial losses were reduced with lighter stocking, this was at the opportunity cost of higher returns during wetter seasons. Increased stocking increased returns during wetter seasons, but at the cost of increased risk of forage deficits and highly negative returns during drier seasons. Flexible stocking may combine the benefits of each approach and reduce financial risk. The development of cumulative probability distributions will allow range users to assess the level of risk attached to different strategies. Incorporation of the ecological effects of stocking strategies as feedback into the model would be important to evaluate ecological risk.
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Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
Lighter stocking reduced modeled forage deficit risk.
Not reportedTaxonComparator
Verbatim
e0“the risk of forage deficits and financial losses were reduced with lighter stocking”
Claim · model-written summary
Increased stocking increased modeled forage deficit risk in drier seasons.
- Treatment
- Increased stockinge0
- Outcome
- risk of forage deficitse0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Qualifier
- drier seasonse0
Not reportedTaxonComparator
Verbatim
e0“Increased stocking increased returns during wetter seasons, but at the cost of increased risk of forage deficits and highly negative returns during drier seasons.”
Claim · model-written summary
Lighter stocking reduced modeled financial loss risk at the cost of higher wet-season returns.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“the risk of forage deficits and financial losses were reduced with lighter stocking, this was at the opportunity cost of higher returns during wetter seasons.”
Claim · model-written summary
Increased stocking increased modeled returns in wetter seasons.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“Increased stocking increased returns during wetter seasons”
Claim · model-written summary
Increased stocking increased modeled risk of highly negative returns in drier seasons.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“increased risk of forage deficits and highly negative returns during drier seasons”
Claim · model-written summary
Flexible stocking may reduce financial risk by combining benefits of fixed approaches.
- Outcome
- reduce financial riske0
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“Flexible stocking may combine the benefits of each approach and reduce financial risk.”