Abstract
Abstract A simulation model was developed for the population dynamics of a carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis (LeConte), population on muck-grown carrots. The model includes mortality rates of eggs, larvae, and pupae for different sowing dates of carrots. It also incorporates the overwintered adult density, the temperature-dependent growth rates of the above-mentioned life stages, the age-, temperature-, and phenology-dependent oviposition rates, and the impact of an egg parasitoid, Anaphes sordidatus (Girault), on egg mortality rates. Model output was evaluated by comparing simulated results with observed results on the seasonal totals and time of population peaks of the egg and larval populations. The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal egg totals were 3.1 ± 0.66 (SE) in 1987 and 1988, and 4.2 ± 0.05 in 1989. They were not statistically different. The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal larval totals were 10 ± 3.33 in 1987 and 1988 and 29.8 ± 0.66 in 1989. Independent data sets (i.e. field data in 1989) showed a significant increase in the simulation error of the larval population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that A . sordidatus had a large influence on the population dynamics of L . oregonensis .
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
The model reproduced seasonal egg totals with mean percentage differences of 3.1 ± 0.66 in 1987–1988.
- Taxon
- carrots
Daucus carotat1 - Interactor
- carrot weevil
Listronotus oregonensist0pest - Outcome
- seasonal egg totalse0
- Value
- 3.1 ± 0.66 (SE)e0
- Comparator
- observede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal egg totals were 3.1 ± 0.66 (SE) in 1987 and 1988, and 4.2 ± 0.05 in 1989.”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
The model reproduced seasonal egg totals with mean percentage difference 4.2 ± 0.05 in 1989.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Interactor
- carrot weevilListronotus oregonensist0pest
- Outcome
- seasonal egg totalse0
- Value
- 4.2 ± 0.05e0
- Comparator
- observede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal egg totals were 3.1 ± 0.66 (SE) in 1987 and 1988, and 4.2 ± 0.05 in 1989.”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated and observed seasonal egg totals were not statistically different.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Outcome
- seasonal egg totalse1
- Comparator
- observede1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“They were not statistically different.”
e1“simulated and observed seasonal egg totals”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
Mean simulation difference for seasonal larval totals was 10 ± 3.33 in 1987–1988.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Outcome
- seasonal larval totalse0
- Value
- 10 ± 3.33e0
- Comparator
- observede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal larval totals were 10 ± 3.33 in 1987 and 1988 and 29.8 ± 0.66 in 1989.”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
Mean simulation difference for seasonal larval totals was 29.8 ± 0.66 in 1989.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Outcome
- seasonal larval totalse0
- Value
- 29.8 ± 0.66e0
- Comparator
- observede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The mean percentage differences between the simulated and observed seasonal larval totals were 10 ± 3.33 in 1987 and 1988 and 29.8 ± 0.66 in 1989.”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
Independent 1989 data showed significantly increased larval population simulation error.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Outcome
- simulation error of the larval populatione0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Comparator
- Independent data setse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Independent data sets (i.e. field data in 1989) showed a significant increase in the simulation error of the larval population.”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”
Claim · model-written summary
Sensitivity analysis indicated a large influence of A. sordidatus on L. oregonensis population dynamics.
- Taxon
- carrotsDaucus carotat1
- Interactor
- L . oregonensisListronotus oregonensise0pest
- Second interactor
- A . sordidatusAnaphes sordidatuse0parasite
- Outcome
- population dynamics of L . oregonensise0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Sensitivity analysis indicated that A . sordidatus had a large influence on the population dynamics of L . oregonensis .”
t0“carrot weevil”
t1“population on muck-grown carrots”