Abstract
1 Plant ecologists have long since realized that the persistence of many facultative biennial plants depends upon disturbance. However, we still have a limited knowledge of the population-level effects of disturbance, and the connection between adult and seed bank dynamics. 2 Using data from a 3-year demographic study combined with experimental gap-opening in a large population of Digitalis purpurea, we parameterized stochastic transition matrix models in ‘disturbed’ vs. ‘undisturbed’ areas. We simulated different gap sizes (fraction of population that was disturbed) and temporal disturbance patterns (constant, random, regular and irregular return intervals) and evaluated the effects on population growth rate and seed bank dynamics. To explore seed bank importance we used two alternatives for seed bank survival rate (0.75/0.35) and three alternatives for seed bank recruitment fraction (0.9/0.5/0.1). 3 Observed background recruitment levels were insufficient to ensure a positive population growth rate. Increased amounts of gap-opening led to higher growth rates, and population persistence was predicted at moderate disturbance levels if seed bank survival was high (0.75). 4 Temporal disturbance pattern affected model results; random and interval scenarios resulted in lower population growth rates and higher extinction risks than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level. Small and frequent disturbances led to considerably higher growth rates than large and rare disturbances. 5 Stochastic elasticity analyses identified the seed bank as the most important life cycle stage with respect to population growth and persistence in most scenarios, and its relative impact was positively related to seed bank survival rate and negatively related to disturbance level. Variation in the recruitment fraction from seed bank vs. seed rain affected both population growth rate and elasticity patterns, indicating the large impact of spatial variation in seed bank density. 6 Synthesis: Despite the existence of a large seed bank, our data suggest that recruitment may be locally seed-limited due to a patchy seed bank structure. Local population development may consequently differ widely from gap to gap. These results illustrate how spatial structures in both seed bank, adult population and gap formation interact to shape plant population dynamics, as well as the occurrence of microsite- vs. seed-limitation.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
Observed background recruitment was insufficient to ensure a positive population growth rate of Digitalis purpurea.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpurea
Digitalis purpureae0 - Outcome
- positive population growth ratee1
- Qualifier
- Observed background recruitment levelse1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e1“Observed background recruitment levels were insufficient to ensure a positive population growth rate”
Claim · model-written summary
Increased gap-opening led to higher population growth rates in Digitalis purpurea.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- Increased amounts of gap-openinge2
- Outcome
- growth ratese2
- Direction
- highere2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e2“Increased amounts of gap-opening led to higher growth rates”
Claim · model-written summary
Population persistence was predicted at moderate disturbance levels when seed bank survival was high (0.75).
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- moderate disturbance levelse3
- Outcome
- population persistencee3
- Qualifier
- if seed bank survival was high (0.75)e3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e3“population persistence was predicted at moderate disturbance levels if seed bank survival was high (0.75)”
Claim · model-written summary
Random and interval disturbance scenarios gave lower population growth rates than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- random and interval scenariose4
- Outcome
- population growth ratese4
- Direction
- lowere4
- Comparator
- constant scenariose4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e4“random and interval scenarios resulted in lower population growth rates and higher extinction risks than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level”
Claim · model-written summary
Random and interval disturbance scenarios gave higher extinction risks than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- random and interval scenariose4
- Outcome
- extinction riskse4
- Direction
- highere4
- Comparator
- constant scenariose4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e4“random and interval scenarios resulted in lower population growth rates and higher extinction risks than constant scenarios of the same average disturbance level”
Claim · model-written summary
Small and frequent disturbances gave considerably higher population growth rates than large and rare disturbances.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- Small and frequent disturbancese5
- Outcome
- growth ratese5
- Direction
- highere5
- Qualifier
- considerablye5
- Comparator
- large and rare disturbancese5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e5“Small and frequent disturbances led to considerably higher growth rates than large and rare disturbances”
Claim · model-written summary
Stochastic elasticity analyses identified the seed bank as the most important life cycle stage for population growth and persistence in most scenarios.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Organ / stage
- seed banke6
- Outcome
- most important life cycle stagee6
- Qualifier
- in most scenariose6
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e6“Stochastic elasticity analyses identified the seed bank as the most important life cycle stage with respect to population growth and persistence in most scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
The relative impact of the seed bank was positively related to seed bank survival rate.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- seed bank survival ratee7
- Outcome
- relative impacte7
- Direction
- positivelye7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e7“its relative impact was positively related to seed bank survival rate and negatively related to disturbance level”
Claim · model-written summary
The relative impact of the seed bank was negatively related to disturbance level.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- disturbance levele7
- Outcome
- relative impacte7
- Direction
- negativelye7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e7“its relative impact was positively related to seed bank survival rate and negatively related to disturbance level”
Claim · model-written summary
Variation in the recruitment fraction from seed bank versus seed rain affected population growth rate and elasticity patterns.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Treatment
- Variation in the recruitment fraction from seed bank vs. seed raine7
- Outcome
- population growth rate and elasticity patternse7
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e7“Variation in the recruitment fraction from seed bank vs. seed rain affected both population growth rate and elasticity patterns”
Claim · model-written summary
Recruitment may be locally seed-limited because of a patchy seed bank structure in Digitalis purpurea.
- Taxon
- Digitalis purpureaDigitalis purpureae0
- Outcome
- recruitmente7
- Qualifier
- locally seed-limited due to a patchy seed bank structuree7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in a large population of Digitalis purpurea”
e7“our data suggest that recruitment may be locally seed-limited due to a patchy seed bank structure”