Abstract
The effectiveness of temperature and rainfall on wheat production and yield is an important indicator of agriculture economy. In this paper, we present a predictable method that estimates the effects of temperature and rainfall variables on wheat production and yield with collected data from 177 synoptic and climatic stations and Wheat Production Time Series (WPTS) over the 15 years (1999–2014) to analyze the effectiveness of local climatic elements using effectiveness-based modeling (EBM) the impact of temperature and rainfall variability on wheat production and yield. We use the combination of statistical methods, including structural equation modeling (SEM), time series and geographical information System (GIS). Effectiveness-based modeling is designed to predict the impacts of temperature and rainfall elements on wheat production and yield in twenty-four models analyzing how these elements relate to wheat production regionalization processes that are effective to climatic condition. The effectiveness modeling based on designed patterns show that these models are suitable for measuring wheat production and yield changes caused by temperature and rainfall changes. In comparison with the models of effective, designed patterns for the prediction indicate that there is significantly positive and negative effectiveness would lead to a temporal-spatial variability in crop yield and production especially for wheat growth periods, under the climatic condition. Although the effectiveness of the temperature and rainfall monthly series on wheat crop production and yield can be completely caused by optimum temperature and seasonal rainfall effect as a valuable component in effectiveness-based modeling.
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Claims 3
Claim · model-written summary
Designed effectiveness models were judged suitable for measuring wheat yield and production changes with temperature and rainfall.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- wheat production and yield changese0
- Comparator
- temperature and rainfall changese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“these models are suitable for measuring wheat production and yield changes caused by temperature and rainfall changes”
Claim · model-written summary
Prediction patterns indicated significant positive and negative climate effects on wheat crop yield and production over time and space.
- Taxon
- WheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- crop yield and productione0
- Direction
- positive and negativee0
- Setting
- climatic conditione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“there is significantly positive and negative effectiveness would lead to a temporal-spatial variability in crop yield and production especially for wheat growth periods, under the climatic condition”
t0“Wheat”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors attribute monthly wheat production and yield variation to optimum temperature and seasonal rainfall.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheat crop production and yielde0
- Qualifier
- optimum temperature and seasonal rainfall effecte0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the effectiveness of the temperature and rainfall monthly series on wheat crop production and yield can be completely caused by optimum temperature and seasonal rainfall effect”