Paper · 2017 · Ecology and Evolution

Parameterization and validation of an ungulate‐pasture model

Antti‐Juhani Pekkarinen; Jouko Kumpula; Olli Tahvonen

8
claims
10
verbatim quotes
17
citations
3
research areas
✓
Open access · cc-by

Abstract

Abstract Ungulate grazing and trampling strongly affect pastures and ecosystems throughout the world. Ecological population models are used for studying these systems and determining the guidelines for sustainable and economically viable management. However, the effect of trampling and other resource wastage is either not taken into account or quantified with data in earlier models. Also, the ability of models to describe the herbivore impact on pastures is usually not validated. We used a detailed model and data to study the level of winter‐ and summertime lichen wastage by reindeer and the effects of wastage on population sizes and management. We also validated the model with respect to its ability of predicting changes in lichen biomass and compared the actual management in herding districts with model results. The modeling efficiency value (0.75) and visual comparison between the model predictions and data showed that the model was able to describe the changes in lichen pastures caused by reindeer grazing and trampling. At the current lichen biomass levels in the northernmost Finland, the lichen wastage varied from 0 to 1 times the lichen intake during winter and from 6 to 10 times the intake during summer. With a higher value for wastage, reindeer numbers and net revenues were lower in the economically optimal solutions. Higher wastage also favored the use of supplementary feeding in the optimal steady state. Actual reindeer numbers in the districts were higher than in the optimal steady‐state solutions for the model in 18 herding districts out of 20. Synthesis and applications . We show that a complex model can be used for analyzing ungulate‐pasture dynamics and sustainable management if the model is parameterized and validated for the system. Wastage levels caused by trampling and other causes should be quantified with data as they strongly affect the results and management recommendations. Summertime lichen wastage caused by reindeer is higher than expected, which suggests that seasonal pasture rotation should be used to prevent the heavy trampling of winter lichen pastures during summer. In the present situation, reindeer numbers in northernmost Finland are in most cases higher than in the management solutions given by the model.

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Claims 8

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The model described changes in lichen pastures caused by reindeer grazing and trampling with modeling efficiency 0.75.

Taxon
lichene0
Interactor
reindeerRangifer taranduse0herbivore
Outcome
changes in lichen pasturese0
Value
0.75e0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Rangifer tarandus
Rangifer tarandus · InteractorDean Biggins (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“The modeling efficiency value (0.75) and visual comparison between the model predictions and data showed that the model was able to describe the changes in lichen pastures caused by reindeer grazing and trampling.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 826–1039 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultsimulated

Claim · model-written summary

At current biomass in northernmost Finland, winter lichen wastage ranged from zero to once lichen intake.

Taxon
lichene0
Outcome
lichen wastagee0
Value
0 to 1 times the lichen intakee0
Qualifier
during wintere0
Setting
northernmost Finlande0

Verbatim

e0

“At the current lichen biomass levels in the northernmost Finland, the lichen wastage varied from 0 to 1 times the lichen intake during winter and from 6 to 10 times the intake during summer.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1040–1230 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultsimulated

Claim · model-written summary

At current biomass in northernmost Finland, summer lichen wastage ranged from six to ten times lichen intake.

Taxon
lichene0
Outcome
lichen wastagee0
Value
6 to 10 times the intakee0
Qualifier
during summere0
Setting
northernmost Finlande0

Verbatim

e0

“At the current lichen biomass levels in the northernmost Finland, the lichen wastage varied from 0 to 1 times the lichen intake during winter and from 6 to 10 times the intake during summer.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1040–1230 · show in text ↑
Associationobservedoriginal resultnegativesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Higher wastage yielded lower optimal reindeer numbers and net revenues.

Taxon
reindeerRangifer taranduse0
Outcome
reindeer numbers and net revenuese0
Direction
lowere0
Qualifier
higher value for wastagee0
Setting
economically optimal solutionse0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Rangifer tarandus
Rangifer tarandus · TaxonDean Biggins (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“With a higher value for wastage, reindeer numbers and net revenues were lower in the economically optimal solutions.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1231–1347 · show in text ↑
Associationobservedoriginal resultsimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Higher wastage favored supplementary feeding in the optimal steady state.

Taxon
reindeerRangifer taranduse1
Outcome
use of supplementary feedinge0
Direction
favorede0
Qualifier
Higher wastagee0
Setting
optimal steady statee0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Rangifer tarandus
Rangifer tarandus · TaxonDean Biggins (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Higher wastage also favored the use of supplementary feeding in the optimal steady state.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1348–1437 · show in text ↑
e1

“reindeer numbers and net revenues were lower in the economically optimal solutions”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1264–1346 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Actual reindeer numbers exceeded model optimal steady-state numbers in 18 of 20 districts.

Taxon
reindeerRangifer taranduse0
Outcome
reindeer numberse0
Direction
highere0
Value
18 herding districts out of 20e0
Comparator
optimal steady‐state solutionse0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Rangifer tarandus
Rangifer tarandus · TaxonDean Biggins (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Actual reindeer numbers in the districts were higher than in the optimal steady‐state solutions for the model in 18 herding districts out of 20.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1438–1582 · show in text ↑
Recommendationauthor interpretationoriginal resultbasis n/a

Claim · model-written summary

Wastage from trampling and other causes should be quantified with data for management recommendations.

Taxon
lichene1
Outcome
Wastage levelse0
Qualifier
should be quantified with datae0

Verbatim

e0

“Wastage levels caused by trampling and other causes should be quantified with data as they strongly affect the results and management recommendations.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1780–1930 · show in text ↑
e1

“changes in lichen biomass”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 724–749 · show in text ↑
Recommendationauthor interpretationoriginal resultbasis n/a

Claim · model-written summary

Seasonal pasture rotation should prevent heavy trampling of winter lichen pastures in summer.

Taxon
lichene0
Interactor
reindeerRangifer taranduse0herbivore
Outcome
seasonal pasture rotatione0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Rangifer tarandus
Rangifer tarandus · InteractorDean Biggins (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Summertime lichen wastage caused by reindeer is higher than expected, which suggests that seasonal pasture rotation should be used to prevent the heavy trampling of winter lichen pastures during summer.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1931–2133 · show in text ↑