Abstract
Projections based on invariant genotypes and agronomic practices indicate that climate change will largely decrease crop yields. The comparatively few studies considering farmers' adaptation result in a diversity of impacts depending on their assumptions. We combined experiments and process-based modeling for analyzing the consequences of climate change on European maize yields if farmers made the best use of the current genetic variability of cycle duration, based on practices they currently use. We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions. This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions and extended to 59 European sites over 36 years with a crop model. The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data. Simulations were then carried out for 2050 with 3 million combinations of crop cycle durations, climate scenarios, management practices, and modeling hypotheses. Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration, whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment. The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe and increased European maize production if farmers continued to make the best use of the genetic variability of crop cycle duration.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient to identify a cycle duration that maximizes yield across European climatic conditions.
- Material
- panel of 121 accessionse2
- Outcome
- cycle duration that maximizes yielde1
- Setting
- European climatic conditionse1
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient for identifying a cycle duration that maximizes yield in a range of European climatic conditions”
e2“This was observed in six field experiments with a panel of 121 accessions”
Claim · model-written summary
Under unchanged cycle duration, simulated 2050 European grain production is stable relative to the 1975-2010 baseline.
- Treatment
- unchanged cycle duratione4
- Outcome
- grain productione4
- Direction
- stablee4
- Value
- -1 to +1%e4
- Comparator
- 1975-2010 baseline periode4
- Setting
- Europee4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient”
e4“Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050 was stable (-1 to +1%) compared with the 1975-2010 baseline period under the hypotheses of unchanged cycle duration”
Claim · model-written summary
Optimizing cycle duration and sowing dates increases simulated 2050 European grain production by 4-7%.
- Treatment
- crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimizede5
- Outcome
- grain productione4
- Direction
- increasede5
- Value
- +4-7%e5
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient”
e4“Simulated grain production over Europe in 2050”
e5“whereas it was increased (+4-7%) when crop cycle duration and sowing dates were optimized in each local environment”
Claim · model-written summary
Combined climate change and farmer adaptation reduce the yield gradient between south and north of Europe.
- Treatment
- combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptatione6
- Outcome
- yield gradient between south and north of Europee6
- Direction
- reducede6
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient”
e6“The combined effects of climate change and farmer adaptation reduced the yield gradient between south and north of Europe”
Claim · model-written summary
The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date is supported by comparison with historical data.
- Outcome
- assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing datee3
- Qualifier
- supported by comparison with historical datae3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“We first showed that the genetic variability of maize flowering time is sufficient”
e3“The assumption that farmers use optimal cycle duration and sowing date was supported by comparison with historical data”
The same questions in other papers
sowing time · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results
177 papers in the same direction as this paper · 89 in the opposite direction · 2 reporting no difference from an alternative
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- negative
- negative
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