Abstract
Crops are variously susceptible to biotic stresses-something expected to increase under climate change. In the case of staple crops, this potentially undermines household and national food security. We examine recent wheat rust epidemics and smallholders' coping mechanisms in Ethiopia as a case study. Wheat is a major food crop in Ethiopia widely grown by smallholders. In 2010/11 a yellow rust epidemic affected over one-third of the national wheat area. Two waves of nationally representative household level panel data collected for the preceding wheat season (2009/10) and three years after (2013/14) the occurrence of the epidemic allow us to analyze the different coping mechanisms farmers used in response. Apart from using fungicides as ex-post coping mechanism, increasing wheat area under yellow rust resistant varieties, increasing diversity of wheat varieties grown, or a combination of these strategies were the main ex-ante coping mechanisms farmers had taken in reducing the potential effects of rust re-occurrence. Large-scale dis-adoption of highly susceptible varieties and replacement with new, rust resistant varieties was observed subsequent to the 2010/11 epidemic. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to identify the key factors associated with smallholder ex-ante coping strategies. Household characteristics, level of specialization in wheat and access to improved wheat seed were the major factors that explained observed choices. There was 29-41% yield advantage in increasing wheat area to the new, resistant varieties even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence in the field. Continuous varietal development in responding to emerging new rust races and supporting the deployment of newly released resistant varieties could help smallholders in dealing with rust challenges and maintaining improved yields in the rust-prone environments of Ethiopia. Given the global importance of both wheat and yellow rust and climate change dynamics study findings have relevance to other regions.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Fungicide use was an ex-post coping mechanism of smallholders after the wheat rust epidemic.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivumt0 - Outcome
- using fungicides as ex-post coping mechanisme1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat rust epidemics”
e1“Apart from using fungicides as ex-post coping mechanism”
Claim · model-written summary
Increasing wheat area under yellow rust resistant varieties, increasing variety diversity, or a combination were the main ex-ante coping mechanisms.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Interactor
- yellow ruste1pathogen
- Outcome
- main ex-ante coping mechanismse1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“increasing wheat area under yellow rust resistant varieties, increasing diversity of wheat varieties grown, or a combination of these strategies were the main ex-ante coping mechanisms farmers had taken in reducing the potential effects of rust re-occurrence”
Claim · model-written summary
Large-scale dis-adoption of highly susceptible wheat varieties and replacement with resistant varieties was observed after the 2010/11 epidemic.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- dis-adoption of highly susceptible varietiese1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat rust epidemics”
e1“Large-scale dis-adoption of highly susceptible varieties and replacement with new, rust resistant varieties was observed subsequent to the 2010/11 epidemic”
Claim · model-written summary
Household characteristics, specialisation in wheat and access to improved wheat seed explained the observed coping choices.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Treatment
- Household characteristicse1
- Outcome
- observed choicese1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Household characteristics, level of specialization in wheat and access to improved wheat seed were the major factors that explained observed choices”
Claim · model-written summary
Increasing wheat area under the new resistant varieties gave a 29-41% yield advantage even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Treatment
- increasing wheat area to the new, resistant varietiese1
- Outcome
- yield advantagee1
- Direction
- higherinferrede1
- Value
- 29-41%e1
- Qualifier
- even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence in the fielde1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“There was 29-41% yield advantage in increasing wheat area to the new, resistant varieties even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence in the field”
Claim · model-written summary
Continuous varietal development and deployment of new resistant varieties could help smallholders maintain improved yields in rust-prone environments.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Interactor
- rust racese1pathogen
- Outcome
- maintaining improved yieldse1
- Setting
- rust-prone environments of Ethiopiae1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“wheat rust epidemics”
e1“Continuous varietal development in responding to emerging new rust races and supporting the deployment of newly released resistant varieties could help smallholders in dealing with rust challenges and maintaining improved yields in the rust-prone environments of Ethiopia”
Claim · model-written summary
The 2010/11 yellow rust epidemic affected over one-third of the national wheat area.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Interactor
- yellow ruste1pathogen
- Outcome
- national wheat areae1
- Value
- over one-thirde1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“In 2010/11 a yellow rust epidemic affected over one-third of the national wheat area”