Abstract
Abstract Climate change is currently affecting both biodiversity and human activities; land use change and greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers. Many agricultural services are affected by the change, which in turn reflects on the basic provisioning services, which supply food, fibre and biofuels. Biofuels are getting increasing interest because of their sustainability potential. Jatropha curcas gained popularity as a biodiesel crop, due to its ease of cultivation even in harsh environmental conditions. Notwithstanding its high economic importance, few studies are available about its co‐occurrence with pests of the genus Aphthona in sub‐Saharan Africa, where these insects feed on J. curcas , leading to relevant economic losses. Using ecological niche modelling and GIS post‐modelling analyses, we infer the current and future suitable territories for both these taxa, delineating areas where J. curcas cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of Aphthona , in the context of future climate and land use changing. We introduce an area‐normalized index, the ‘Potential‐Actual Cultivation Index’, to better depict the ratio between the suitable areas shared both by the crop and its pest, and the number of actual cultivations, in a target country. Moreover, we find high economic losses (~−50%) both in terms of carbon sequestration and in biodiesel production when J. curcas co‐occur with the Aphthona cookei species group.
Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record; open copy licensed cc-by. Read at the source ↗
The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 3
Claim · model-written summary
Niche modelling was used to infer current and future suitable territories for Jatropha curcas and Aphthona, delineating areas where the crop may be cultivated without the pest.
- Taxon
- J. curcas
_tree_at_Samedha.jpg?width=60)
Jatropha curcase0 - Outcome
- current and future suitable territoriese0
AphthonaOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
_tree_at_Samedha.jpg?width=500)
Verbatim
e0“we infer the current and future suitable territories for both these taxa, delineating areas where J. curcas cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of Aphthona”
Claim · model-written summary
An area-normalized Potential-Actual Cultivation Index is introduced to depict the ratio of shared crop-pest suitable area to the number of actual cultivations in a target country.
Verbatim
e0“the ratio between the suitable areas shared both by the crop and its pest, and the number of actual cultivations”
Claim · model-written summary
High economic losses of about 50% in carbon sequestration and biodiesel production are found when J. curcas co-occurs with the Aphthona cookei species group.
- Taxon
- J. curcasJatropha curcase1
- Interactor
- Aphthona cookei species groupe3pest
- Outcome
- economic lossese0
- Direction
- decreaseinferrede0
- Value
- 50%e2
- Qualifier
- carbon sequestration and in biodiesel productione1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“high economic losses”
e1“carbon sequestration and in biodiesel production when J. curcas”
e2“50%”
e3“Aphthona cookei species group”