Abstract
Global climate is rapidly changing and, while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of woodland species in the wider European context, few have focused on the impacts of climate change on the distribution of woodland species in Ireland. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of species characteristic of woodlands and assesses the implications for the conservation of woodlands in Ireland. Only some 2% of the land area of Ireland is covered in semi-natural woodlands, including communities which are conservation priorities such as bog woodland, alluvial forests and Taxus baccata (Yew) woods. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data for 104 vascular plant, bryophyte, bird and butterfly species from Ireland, baseline climate data (1961-1990) and projected future climate data (HadCM3 GCM; 2031-2060), at a 10km² resolution. Of the 104 species, 44 modelled well in at least 6 of the 8 models. Under a scenario of unlimited dispersal, almost 50% of species which modelled well were projected to lose climate space, with the largest range contraction projected for the butterfly Aphantopus hyperantus (Ringlet; — 47.7%). The remainder were projected to have increased climate space, with Thecla betulae (Brown hairstreak) and Frángula alnus (Alder buckthorn) having the largest projected increases of 886% and 532% of their current ranges. When a scenario of limited long-range dispersal was considered, all species were projected to lose some of their current range, from a decrease of 52.4% for Carex strigosa (thin-spiked woodsedge) to a decrease of 10.9% for Saxífraga spathularis (St Patrick's cabbage). These results have significant implications for the future of woodlands in Ireland. Conservation management plans for these habitats need greater focus on potential climate change impacts in order to ensure these communities' long-term survival.
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Claims 9
Claim · model-written summary
Forty-four of 104 woodland species modelled well in at least six of eight models.
Verbatim
e0“Of the 104 species, 44 modelled well in at least 6 of the 8 models.”
Claim · model-written summary
Under unlimited dispersal, almost half of well-modelled species were projected to lose climate space.
Verbatim
e0“Under a scenario of unlimited dispersal, almost 50% of species which modelled well were projected to lose climate space”
Claim · model-written summary
Aphantopus hyperantus had the largest projected range contraction, 47.7%.
- Taxon
- Aphantopus hyperantusManiola hyperantuse0
- Outcome
- range contractione0
- Direction
- contractione0
- Value
- 47.7%e0
Verbatim
e0“largest range contraction projected for the butterfly Aphantopus hyperantus (Ringlet; — 47.7%)”
Claim · model-written summary
Thecla betulae had a projected climate-space increase of 886% of its current range.
- Taxon
- Thecla betulae
Thecla betulaee0 - Outcome
- current rangese0
- Direction
- increasese0
- Value
- 886%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Thecla betulae (Brown hairstreak) and Frángula alnus (Alder buckthorn) having the largest projected increases of 886% and 532% of their current ranges”
Claim · model-written summary
Frángula alnus had a projected climate-space increase of 532% of its current range.
Verbatim
e0“Thecla betulae (Brown hairstreak) and Frángula alnus (Alder buckthorn) having the largest projected increases of 886% and 532% of their current ranges”
Claim · model-written summary
Under limited long-range dispersal, all species were projected to lose some current range.
Verbatim
e0“When a scenario of limited long-range dispersal was considered, all species were projected to lose some of their current range”
Claim · model-written summary
Carex strigosa had a projected 52.4% range decrease under limited long-range dispersal.
- Taxon
- Carex strigosa
Carex strigosae0 - Outcome
- decreasee0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 52.4%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“a decrease of 52.4% for Carex strigosa (thin-spiked woodsedge)”
Claim · model-written summary
Saxífraga spathularis had a projected 10.9% range decrease under limited long-range dispersal.
Verbatim
e0“a decrease of 10.9% for Saxífraga spathularis (St Patrick's cabbage)”
Claim · model-written summary
Woodland conservation plans should place greater focus on potential climate-change impacts.
Verbatim
e0“Conservation management plans for these habitats need greater focus on potential climate change impacts in order to ensure these communities' long-term survival.”