Abstract
This paper discusses the relationship between weather and rice productivity modeled using the Cobb–Douglas production function principle, with the hypothesis that rice production will increase in line with the increase in average rainfall, wind speed, and temperature every month and then decrease if the weather conditions exceed the threshold. As a result, farmers have the risk of losing rice production. To overcome this problem, we try to estimate the value of the risk. The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of losses that occurred in rice plants due to weather changes. The method used in this study is risk estimation with the Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) approach. In addition to TVaR, it is estimated simultaneously with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). This study uses weather data consisting of rainfall data, wind speed, and air temperature collected from geophysical and meteorological data. Meanwhile, yield data were obtained and processed from the Central Statistics Agency and the West Java Agricultural Service. The data used are data from 2008 to 2021. There are two main parts of the results in this study, namely mathematical analysis and data analysis. The mathematical analysis is a risk model derivation process, which includes TVaR risk measurement. The data analysis process is a simulation of the estimated risk of rice production loss. The results obtained from this study are the value of opportunity risk of loss based on the VaR, CVaR, and TVaR approaches. The conclusion of this study is that the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes. Farmers can plan to overcome this loss problem, by setting up a reserve fund. Risk of loss can be managed through the rice agricultural insurance program. This is in line with the Indonesian government’s program through the ministry of agriculture. Thus, farmers, insurance companies, and the government can manage the risk of losing rice yields.
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Claims 4
Claim · model-written summary
Rice plants have a risk of yield loss caused by weather changes.
- Taxon
- rice plants
Oryza sativae1 - Treatment
- weather changese1
- Outcome
- risk of losse1
- Direction
- reducede1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes”
Claim · model-written summary
The opportunity risk of rice yield loss was estimated with VaR, CVaR and TVaR approaches.
- Taxon
- rice plantsOryza sativae1
- Outcome
- value of opportunity risk of losse2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes”
e2“The results obtained from this study are the value of opportunity risk of loss based on the VaR, CVaR, and TVaR approaches”
Claim · model-written summary
Farmers could overcome the rice yield loss problem by setting up a reserve fund.
- Taxon
- rice plantsOryza sativae1
- Outcome
- overcome this loss probleme3
- Qualifier
- by setting up a reserve funde3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“the rice plants have a risk of loss in the form of reduced yields caused by weather changes”
e3“Farmers can plan to overcome this loss problem, by setting up a reserve fund”
Claim · model-written summary
Rice yield loss risk can be managed through the rice agricultural insurance program.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae4
- Outcome
- Risk of loss can be managede4
- Qualifier
- through the rice agricultural insurance programe4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e4“Risk of loss can be managed through the rice agricultural insurance program”