Abstract
Ethanol production is expected to increase to 54 billion litres in 2030. Two alternatives from an agronomic point of view could be increasing the amount of area under sugarcane cultivation and/or narrowing the yield gaps. Precision agriculture (PA) approach and technologies for that are a feasible strategy to boost yields without the need for any further expansion of sugarcane areas. Through life cycle assessment (LCA), this study addressed the economic and environmental suitability of production expansion based on four scenarios in South-Central Brazil. Current production, expansion of area and yield, and PA technology adoption (fertiliser management and systematisation) are the scenarios assessed. The results showed that if no yield gain is achieved, an expansion of 4.5 million hectares of cultivated area will be required to reach those targets. To maintain stable cropping areas, the average yield of sugarcane should be increased from 76.2 Mg ha −1 to 122.4 Mg ha −1 in 2030. Such an increase could potentially reduce production costs by 26% and greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared to those in the current scenario. However, the findings suggest that the adoption of site-specific management alone is not enough to address the necessary production to reach the goals by 2030. So, conclusions drawn from this study suggest that it will be necessary adopting strategies to increase sugarcane production, either through site-specific management or the expansion of cultivated area. The improved management of spatial–temporal variability through PA technologies is a win–win strategy to promote yield gains, reduce production costs and further ensure environmental benefits of sugarcane-based ethanol.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Without yield gains, about 4.5 million hectares of cultivated area expansion would be required for sugarcane targets.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e1“if no yield gain is achieved, an expansion of 4.5 million hectares of cultivated area will be required to reach those targets”
Claim · model-written summary
Average sugarcane yield should increase from 76.2 to 122.4 Mg ha −1 by 2030 to keep cropping areas stable.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e2“the average yield of sugarcane should be increased from 76.2 Mg ha −1 to 122.4 Mg ha −1 in 2030”
Claim · model-written summary
Yield increase could reduce sugarcane production costs by 26% compared with the current scenario.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e3“Such an increase could potentially reduce production costs by 26% and greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared to those in the current scenario”
Claim · model-written summary
Yield increase could reduce sugarcane greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared with the current scenario.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e3“Such an increase could potentially reduce production costs by 26% and greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared to those in the current scenario”
Claim · model-written summary
Site-specific management alone is not enough to reach the necessary sugarcane production by 2030.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e4“the adoption of site-specific management alone is not enough to address the necessary production to reach the goals by 2030”
Claim · model-written summary
Strategies to increase sugarcane production are necessary, through site-specific management or cultivated area expansion.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e5“it will be necessary adopting strategies to increase sugarcane production, either through site-specific management or the expansion of cultivated area”
Claim · model-written summary
Precision agriculture technologies are a win-win strategy to promote sugarcane yield gains and reduce production costs.
Verbatim
t0“sugarcane production”
e6“The improved management of spatial–temporal variability through PA technologies is a win–win strategy to promote yield gains, reduce production costs and further ensure environmental benefits of sugarcane-based ethanol”