Abstract
Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China's future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.
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Claims 4
Claim · model-written summary
Optimal planting density and management would roughly double current maize yield.
- Treatment
- optimal planting density and managemente0
- Outcome
- maize yielde0
- Direction
- doublede0
- Value
- roughly doublede0
- Comparator
- Current maize yielde0
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management”
Claim · model-written summary
Dense planting and soil improvement were projected to improve maize yield by 52% under SSP585 in the 2030s relative to a historical climate trend.
- Treatment
- dense planting and soil improvemente0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- improvemente0
- Value
- 52%e0
- Qualifier
- In the 2030 se0
- Comparator
- a historical climate trende0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected yield gains from soil improvement outweigh adverse climate change effects.
- Treatment
- soil improvemente0
- Outcome
- yield gainse0
- Direction
- outweighe0
- Comparator
- adverse effects of climate changee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors infer that China could meet its maize needs using current cropping areas.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas”
The same questions in other papers
density · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results
518 papers in the same direction as this paper · 132 in the opposite direction · 7 reporting no difference from an alternative
- positive
- positive
- positive
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