Paper · 2023 · Agronomy Journal

Integrating APSIM model with machine learning to predict wheat yield spatial distribution

Ahmed M. S. Kheir; Siyabusa Mkuhlani; Jane W. Mugo; et al.

3
claims
6
verbatim quotes
23
citations
2
research areas
✓
Open access

Abstract

Abstract Traditional simulation models are often point based; thus, more research is needed to emphasize spatial simulation, providing decision‐makers with fast recommendations. Combining machine learning algorithms with spatial process‐based models could be considered an appropriate solution. We created a spatial model in R (APSIMx_R) to generate fine‐resolution data from coarse‐resolution data, which is typically available at the regional level. The APSIM crop model outputs were then deployed to train and test the artificial neural network, creating a hybrid modeling approach for robust spatial simulations. The APSIMx_R package facilitates preparing the required model inputs, executes the prediction, processes, and analyzes the APSIM crop model outputs. This note demonstrates the use of a new approach for creating reproducible crop modeling workflows with the spatial APSIM next‐generation model and machine learning algorithms. The tool was deployed for spatial and temporal simulation of potential wheat yield under different nitrogen rates and various wheat cultivars. The spatial APSIMx_R was validated by comparing the simulated yield at 100 kg N ha −1 to the analogues' actual yield at the same grid points, which showed good agreement ( d = 0.89) between the spatially predicted and actual yield. The hybrid approach increased such precision, resulting in higher agreement ( d = 0.95) with actual yield. When the interaction between cultivars and nitrogen levels was considered, it was found that the novel cultivar Sakha95 is nitrogen voracious, exhibiting a larger drop in yield (65%) under minimal nitrogen treatment (0 kg N ha −1 ) relative to the potential yield.

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Claims 3

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Spatial APSIMx_R predicted wheat yield with agreement d = 0.89 against actual yield at 100 kg N ha −1.

Treatment
100 kg N ha −1e0
Outcome
agreemente0
Value
d = 0.89e0
Comparator
actual yielde0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 57–68 · show in text ↑
e0

“The spatial APSIMx_R was validated by comparing the simulated yield at 100 kg N ha −1 to the analogues' actual yield at the same grid points, which showed good agreement ( d = 0.89) between the spatially predicted and actual yield.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1086–1317 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The hybrid model raised agreement with actual wheat yield to d = 0.95.

Outcome
agreemente0
Direction
highere0
Value
d = 0.95e0
Comparator
actual yielde0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 57–68 · show in text ↑
e0

“The hybrid approach increased such precision, resulting in higher agreement ( d = 0.95) with actual yield.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1318–1424 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Sakha95 yield dropped by 65% under 0 kg N ha −1 relative to potential yield.

Material
Sakha95e0
Treatment
0 kg N ha −1e0
Outcome
yielde0
Direction
drope0
Value
65%e0
Comparator
potential yielde0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 57–68 · show in text ↑
e0

“the novel cultivar Sakha95 is nitrogen voracious, exhibiting a larger drop in yield (65%) under minimal nitrogen treatment (0 kg N ha −1 ) relative to the potential yield.”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1518–1689 · show in text ↑

nitrogen · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results

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