Paper · 2022 · DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)

Early Cocoa Blackpod Pathogen Prediction with Machine Learning Ensemble Algorithm based on Climatic Parameters

Olofintuyi Sunday Samuel

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Open access · cc-by-sa

Abstract

Machine learning has been useful for prediction in the various sectors of the economy. The research work proposed an ensemble SA-CCT machine learning algorithm that gives early and accurate prediction of blackpod disease to farmers and agricultural extension officers in South-West, Nigeria. Since data mining put into consideration the types of pattern in a given dataset, the study considered the pattern in climatic dataset retrieved from Nigeria Meteorological agency (NIMET). The proposed model uses climatic parameters (Rainfall and Temperature) to predict the outbreak of blackpod disease. The ensemble SA-CCT model was formulated by hybridizing a linear algorithm Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and a nonlinear algorithm Compact Classification Tree (CCT), the implementation was done with python programming. The proposed SA-CCT model gives the following results after evaluation. Precision: 0.9429, Recall 0.9167, Mean Square Error: 0.2357, Accuracy: 0.9444

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The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.

Claims 4

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The SA-CCT model predicted blackpod disease with precision of 0.9429.

Outcome
Precisione0
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0.9429e0

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“The proposed SA-CCT model gives the following results after evaluation. Precision: 0.9429”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 846–935 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The SA-CCT model predicted blackpod disease with recall of 0.9167.

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0.9167e0

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e0

“Recall 0.9167”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 937–950 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmeasured

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The SA-CCT model had mean square error of 0.2357 for blackpod prediction.

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0.2357e0

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e0

“Mean Square Error: 0.2357”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 952–977 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

The SA-CCT model predicted blackpod disease with accuracy of 0.9444.

Outcome
Accuracye0
Value
0.9444e0

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e0

“Accuracy: 0.9444”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 979–995 · show in text ↑