ABILITY OF FARMERS TO CORRECTLY ESTIMATE THE SEASONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND ENVIRONMENTAL-FRIENDLY FARM HABITAT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON THE VARIABILITY IN POTATO (Solanum tuberosum L.) YIELD, YIELD LOSS, DISEASE INCIDENCE AND PEST POPULATION DENSITY DYNAMIC IN KALEHE TERRITORY, SOUTH-KIVU PROVINCE, EASTERN DRCONGO

Abstract

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an important cash and food security crop in the eastern highlands of eastern DRCongo.However, climate change and variability poses a serious risk to sustainable production of the crop.Potato production and productivity are seriously affected by temperature and rainfall variability.Hence, it is important to identify the degree of climate change in specific locality either by determining the perceptions of farmers on the change or and model the ability of farmers to predict correctly the role played by climatic factors among drivers of pests, diseases and yield variability.The aim of this study was to elicit information on potato farmers' perceptions of climate change impacts on potato yield, disease and pest and adaptation measures adopted.It was expected that the ability of farmers to predict drivers of variability in yield and yield loss may be useful in planning for the implementation of sound specific adaptation strategies.Primary data was collected using a questionnaire that was addressed to 340 respondents (20 respondents per village) from 17 villages (localities) in major altitudinal potato growing zones in Kalehe territory, South-Kivu Province.Using a semi-structured questionnaire, farmers were interviewed to capture their opinion about climatic events, landscape and farm management practices.Additional data was collected from the nearest meteorological station about weather factor trends in last 20-50 years.Monthly average data was considered in the analysis as it affects the seasonality response of pests and diseases during the length of growing period.Generalized linear models (GLM) were employed to analyze the ability of farmers to identify key factors influencing the variability of yield, pest population density and disease incidence and their linkage with the choice of adaptation strategies for potato production.GLM was run with the level of knowledge of causes of variability in yield, yield loss, pest density and disease incidence of the crop under different crop management (adaptation) options, cropping seasons, landscape and weather factors.The GLM outputs revealed ability of farmers to identify key drivers for pests, diseases incidence and yield loss variabilities.Some weather factors (maximum temperature, rainfall) had significant effects while other had none.The survey result indicated that most respondents perceived the existence of change in climate variables theses days.They perceived a decrease in rainfall and an increasing trend in temperature.They also mentioned a

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