Abstract
After rice, wheat is the another most imperative source of staple foods in Bangladesh. Wheat production plays a crucial role in ensuring food security. However, persistent inconsistencies between wheat production and cultivated area pose challenges to national food security. This study investigates the trends, variability, and forecasting of wheat production in Bangladesh from 1971 to 2023. Secondary data were collected from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Agricultural Extension. The entire period was divided into two periods: 1971–2000 and 2001–2023. A semi-log model was used to estimate the growth rate, while a linear regression model examined the dependency of wheat production on cultivated area. The coefficient of variation (CV) was applied to assess variability, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed for forecasting wheat production. A steady decline in the area of wheat cultivation and fluctuations in wheat production was visible throughout the study period. A moderate positive correlation between area and production was observed, which indicates that area under cultivation has an influence on production of wheat in Bangladesh. While the growth rate was unstable throughout the study period with significant variability. The underlying patterns in wheat production was successfully identified by the ARIMA (1,1,0) model providing meaningful forecasts. This paper forecast the wheat production for upcoming 5 years. A consistent trend was detected emphasizing key stages of increase and decrease of wheat production in Bangladesh. To wrap up, though wheat production in Bangladesh has made some improvement, the country deals with a continuous struggle to meet the demand. Strategies to ensure more stable and increased wheat production must be prioritized by the policymakers. Ann. Bangladesh Agric. 29(1): 51-67
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Claims 9
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat cultivation area declined steadily.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- area of wheat cultivatione0
- Direction
- declinee0
- Setting
- Bangladeshe1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“A steady decline in the area of wheat cultivation”
e1“in Bangladesh from 1971 to 2023”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat production fluctuated over the study period.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheat productione0
- Direction
- fluctuationse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“fluctuations in wheat production was visible throughout the study period”
Claim · model-written summary
Cultivated area and wheat production showed a moderate positive correlation.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Outcome
- productione0
- Direction
- positivee0
- Setting
- Bangladeshe1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“A moderate positive correlation between area and production was observed”
e1“production of wheat in Bangladesh”
Claim · model-written summary
The growth rate was unstable with significant variability.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- growth ratee0
- Direction
- unstablee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the growth rate was unstable throughout the study period with significant variability”
t0“wheat production”
Claim · model-written summary
The ARIMA (1,1,0) model identified underlying wheat production patterns and provided meaningful forecasts.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- underlying patterns in wheat productione0
- Value
- 1,1,0e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The underlying patterns in wheat production was successfully identified by the ARIMA (1,1,0) model providing meaningful forecasts.”
Claim · model-written summary
The paper forecast wheat production for the upcoming five years.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheat productione0
- Value
- 5 yearse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“This paper forecast the wheat production for upcoming 5 years.”
Claim · model-written summary
A production trend had stages of increase and decrease.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheat productione0
- Direction
- increase and decreasee0
- Setting
- Bangladeshe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“A consistent trend was detected emphasizing key stages of increase and decrease of wheat production in Bangladesh.”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat production improved somewhat but continued to struggle to meet demand.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- wheat productione0
- Direction
- some improvemente0
- Setting
- Bangladeshe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat production in Bangladesh has made some improvement, the country deals with a continuous struggle to meet the demand”
Claim · model-written summary
Policymakers should prioritize stable and increased wheat production.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- more stable and increased wheat productione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Strategies to ensure more stable and increased wheat production must be prioritized by the policymakers.”