Abstract
Abstract Understanding phenological strategies can be complicated by organisms' use of multiple cues, changing effects of cues over phenophases and local adaptation. We investigated the importance of spring temperature and rain‐year precipitation on phenology in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.) in the western United States, a region with variable temperature and moisture conditions. We categorized participatory science milkweed observations into budding, flowering and post‐flowering phenophases and matched observations to year‐ and site‐specific climate conditions. We separated climate effects on phenology into variation across sites versus variation across years to look for evidence of local adaptation in phenology. Warmer mean spring temperatures generally advanced phenology, while wetter rain‐years generally delayed phenology. Across all milkweed species × phenophase combinations, spring mean temperature advanced phenology by 2.56 ± 1.71 days × spring temp°C −1 (mean ± SD), and precipitation delayed phenology by 0.12 ± 0.079 days × cm precip −1 . We found evidence for local adaptation in phenology with respect to temperature in three of fifteen species × phenophase combinations and for precipitation in four of fifteen species × phenophase combinations. All significant local adaptation with respect to temperature and precipitation reflected counter‐gradient local adaptation (increasing phenological synchrony across the range). Synthesis . Combining analytical approaches for studying phenology using observation datasets with the wide availability of observational data from participatory science sources offers an exciting possibility to rapidly generate hypotheses about how organisms' phenology may react to novel cue combinations under global change, and how these reactions may differ based on species traits.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Warmer mean spring temperatures generally advanced phenology of milkweed species.
AsclepiasOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e1“Warmer mean spring temperatures generally advanced phenology, while wetter rain‐years generally delayed phenology”
Claim · model-written summary
Wetter rain-years generally delayed phenology of milkweed species.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e1“Warmer mean spring temperatures generally advanced phenology, while wetter rain‐years generally delayed phenology”
Claim · model-written summary
Spring mean temperature advanced phenology by 2.56 ± 1.71 days per °C across milkweed species and phenophases.
- Treatment
- spring mean temperaturee2
- Outcome
- phenologye2
- Direction
- advancede2
- Value
- 2.56 ± 1.71 days × spring temp°C −1e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e2“spring mean temperature advanced phenology by 2.56 ± 1.71 days × spring temp°C −1 (mean ± SD)”
Claim · model-written summary
Precipitation delayed phenology by 0.12 ± 0.079 days per cm across milkweed species and phenophases.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e3“precipitation delayed phenology by 0.12 ± 0.079 days × cm precip −1”
Claim · model-written summary
Local adaptation in phenology with respect to temperature was found in three of fifteen species × phenophase combinations.
- Outcome
- local adaptation in phenologye4
- Value
- three of fifteen species × phenophase combinationse4
- Qualifier
- with respect to temperaturee4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e4“We found evidence for local adaptation in phenology with respect to temperature in three of fifteen species × phenophase combinations and for precipitation in four of fifteen species × phenophase combinations”
Claim · model-written summary
Local adaptation in phenology with respect to precipitation was found in four of fifteen species × phenophase combinations.
- Outcome
- local adaptation in phenologye4
- Value
- four of fifteen species × phenophase combinationse4
- Qualifier
- for precipitatione4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e4“We found evidence for local adaptation in phenology with respect to temperature in three of fifteen species × phenophase combinations and for precipitation in four of fifteen species × phenophase combinations”
Claim · model-written summary
All significant local adaptation to temperature and precipitation was counter-gradient, increasing phenological synchrony across the range.
- Outcome
- counter‐gradient local adaptatione5
- Qualifier
- increasing phenological synchrony across the rangee5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in five species of milkweeds ( Asclepias spp.)”
e5“All significant local adaptation with respect to temperature and precipitation reflected counter‐gradient local adaptation (increasing phenological synchrony across the range)”