Abstract
In India, turmeric holds a special place as both a spice and a medicinal crop, with South India being the leading region for its cultivation and trade. Given its economic importance, the present study examines developments in acreage, output and yield of turmeric in Andhra Pradesh from 1954 to 2023, using data collected from India stats and analyzed through GRETL and MS Excel. The compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were calculated across eight sub-periods to identify cultivation trends. The results indicate that from 1954 to 1993, turmeric area, production and yield showed a steady increase, but began declining thereafter, largely influenced by regional restructuring and the state bifurcation. Furthermore, for forecasting, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology was applied, selecting models based on autocorrelation functions and criteria such as AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE (minimum) and R² (maximum) values. The ARIMA (1,1,10) model was deemed suitable for forecasting area and yield, while the ARIMA (1, 1, 9) model was appropriate for production, both achieving a 95 % accuracy level. Projections suggest a declining trend in turmeric cultivation, with area and production expected to decrease to 9.33 (000 ha) and 108.12 (000) MT, respectively, by 2030-31. These findings highlight the necessity for strategic interventions to stabilize and enhance turmeric farming in the region, providing a foundation for policymakers to address sustainability and productivity challenges.
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The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Turmeric area increased from 1954 to 1993 and declined thereafter.
- Taxon
- turmeric
_W_IMG_2440.jpg?width=60)
Curcuma longae0 - Outcome
- areae0
- Direction
- steady increasee0
- Qualifier
- from 1954 to 1993e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
_W_IMG_2440.jpg?width=500)
Verbatim
e0“The results indicate that from 1954 to 1993, turmeric area, production and yield showed a steady increase, but began declining thereafter, largely influenced by regional restructuring and the state bifurcation.”
Claim · model-written summary
Turmeric production increased from 1954 to 1993 and declined thereafter.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longae0
- Outcome
- productione0
- Direction
- steady increasee0
- Qualifier
- from 1954 to 1993e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The results indicate that from 1954 to 1993, turmeric area, production and yield showed a steady increase, but began declining thereafter, largely influenced by regional restructuring and the state bifurcation.”
Claim · model-written summary
Turmeric yield increased from 1954 to 1993 and declined thereafter.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longae0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- steady increasee0
- Qualifier
- from 1954 to 1993e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The results indicate that from 1954 to 1993, turmeric area, production and yield showed a steady increase, but began declining thereafter, largely influenced by regional restructuring and the state bifurcation.”
Claim · model-written summary
ARIMA (1,1,10) was suitable for forecasting turmeric area and yield.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longat0
- Outcome
- forecasting area and yielde0
- Value
- 95 %e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The ARIMA (1,1,10) model was deemed suitable for forecasting area and yield, while the ARIMA (1, 1, 9) model was appropriate for production, both achieving a 95 % accuracy level.”
t0“turmeric”
Claim · model-written summary
ARIMA (1, 1, 9) was appropriate for forecasting turmeric production.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longat0
- Outcome
- productione0
- Value
- 95 %e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The ARIMA (1,1,10) model was deemed suitable for forecasting area and yield, while the ARIMA (1, 1, 9) model was appropriate for production, both achieving a 95 % accuracy level.”
t0“turmeric”
Claim · model-written summary
Turmeric area is projected to decrease to 9.33 (000 ha) by 2030-31.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longae0
- Outcome
- areae0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 9.33 (000 ha)e0
- Qualifier
- by 2030-31e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Projections suggest a declining trend in turmeric cultivation, with area and production expected to decrease to 9.33 (000 ha) and 108.12 (000) MT, respectively, by 2030-31.”
Claim · model-written summary
Turmeric production is projected to decrease to 108.12 (000) MT by 2030-31.
- Taxon
- turmericCurcuma longae0
- Outcome
- productione0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 108.12 (000) MTe0
- Qualifier
- by 2030-31e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Projections suggest a declining trend in turmeric cultivation, with area and production expected to decrease to 9.33 (000 ha) and 108.12 (000) MT, respectively, by 2030-31.”