Predicting the Peak Bloom of Yoshino Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC with Random Forest Regression

Abstract

Springtime ushers in a bouquet of flowering arrangements that create ripe economic and social opportunities. Since the Japanese ambassador's gift of 3020 Yoshino cherry trees to the National Mall in Washington, DC, the National Cherry Blossom Festival has occurred annually beginning in 1935. This festival is unique in that over one million visitors parade the Capitol area each year, drawing inspiration from the peak blooming date of the characteristic cherry trees. The NPS provided data on the several stages of Yoshino cherry trees leading to peak bloom from 2004–2024, while local climate data exists for temperature, rainfall, and other factors influencing the date of peak bloom. Yet, the EPA and various studies understand that an earlier blooming date may be caused by climate change. Festival organizers maintain that predicting peak bloom from more than 10 days out is an extreme challenge, which we aim to resolve using random forest regression.

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