Abstract
Multiple cropping increases land productivity by allowing multiple harvests per year, offering production gains without cropland expansion. Irrigation is especially critical in the seasonally dry tropics, enabling multiple cropping where otherwise only a single rainfed cycle would be feasible. Estimates of the current state of multiple cropping and the multiple cropping expansion potential without changes in irrigation patterns exist, but the multiple cropping expansion potential through irrigation expansion has not yet been assessed at the global scale. Here, we estimate multiple cropping expansion potentials on existing cropland considering the interaction with irrigation and local water availability constraints to determine how much cropland area can be managed in multiple cropping systems and the associated increases in annual yields and crop production. We find that, under current climatic conditions, there is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when also expanding irrigation. Total global crop production could increase by 28% (from 4 200 mio. t DM to 5 400 mio. t DM). This gain stems from nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping, more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands, and expanding irrigation into areas where it facilitates another growing season. Our study reveals a considerable multiple cropping expansion potential on existing cropland that-when tapped-could contribute to averting further cropland expansion to meet future demand for agricultural outputs. Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential, implying that the interaction of multiple cropping and irrigation is crucial to consider in comprehensive land and water assessments that account for biophysical and socio-economic constraints, sustainability criteria, and land competition under future global change.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Under current climatic conditions, total global crop production could increase by 28%, from 4 200 to 5 400 mio. t DM, if multiple cropping is expanded on existing cropland.
Verbatim
e1“Total global crop production could increase by 28% (from 4 200 mio. t DM to 5 400 mio. t DM)”
Claim · model-written summary
There is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when irrigation is also expanded.
- Outcome
- considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing croplande1
- Qualifier
- particularly when also expanding irrigatione1
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e1“there is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when also expanding irrigation”
Claim · model-written summary
The gain in production stems partly from nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e1“nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping”
Claim · model-written summary
The gain in production stems partly from more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e1“more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands”
Claim · model-written summary
Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential.
- Treatment
- Local irrigation water availabilitye1
- Outcome
- irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potentiale1
- Direction
- constrainse1
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e1“Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential”