Abstract
Introduction: Increasing climatic variability challenges Coffea canephora breeding programs to identify genotypes that combine high productivity with temporal stability across contrasting seasons. Methods: We evaluated 44 genotypes across four consecutive crop seasons (2022-2025) in eastern Minas Gerais, Brazil, using mixed linear models (REML/BLUP) with seven alternative variance-covariance structures for genetic and residual effects. Results: The flexible model M7 (unstructured genetic covariance matrix with year-specific residual variances) provided the best fit (lowest AIC and BIC). Plot-level heritability ranged from 0.64 to 0.68, genotype-mean heritability from 0.84 to 0.86, repeatability was 0.89, and selective accuracy ranged from 0.92 to 0.94. Genetic correlations revealed atypical behavior in 2023, driven by heat stress during grain filling. Relative selection efficiency increased cumulatively by 4.4% after four years. Genotypes Bicudo, A1, and AD1 combined the highest predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indices. Discussion: Flexible mixed model approaches improve the reliability of genetic evaluation and support resilience-oriented selection strategies in C. canephora, enabling accelerated genetic gain and identification of superior genotypes adapted to variable cultivation conditions.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
M7 had the lowest AIC and BIC of evaluated models.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephora
Coffea canephorat0 - Outcome
- best fite0
- Direction
- loweste0
- Qualifier
- AIC and BICe0
- Comparator
- M7e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The flexible model M7 (unstructured genetic covariance matrix with year-specific residual variances) provided the best fit (lowest AIC and BIC).”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Plot-level heritability ranged from 0.64 to 0.68.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Outcome
- Plot-level heritabilitye0
- Value
- 0.64 to 0.68e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Plot-level heritability ranged from 0.64 to 0.68”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Genotype-mean heritability ranged from 0.84 to 0.86.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Outcome
- genotype-mean heritabilitye0
- Value
- 0.84 to 0.86e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“genotype-mean heritability from 0.84 to 0.86”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Repeatability was 0.89.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Outcome
- repeatabilitye0
- Value
- 0.89e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“repeatability was 0.89”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Selective accuracy ranged from 0.92 to 0.94.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Outcome
- selective accuracye0
- Value
- 0.92 to 0.94e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“selective accuracy ranged from 0.92 to 0.94.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Genetic correlations indicated atypical 2023 behavior attributed to heat stress during grain filling.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Treatment
- heat stress during grain fillinge0
- Outcome
- atypical behavior in 2023e0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Genetic correlations revealed atypical behavior in 2023, driven by heat stress during grain filling.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Relative selection efficiency rose cumulatively by 4.4% after four years.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Outcome
- Relative selection efficiencye0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 4.4%e0
- Qualifier
- after four yearse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Relative selection efficiency increased cumulatively by 4.4% after four years.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Bicudo combined a high predicted genotypic value and elevated persistence index.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Material
- Bicudoe0
- Outcome
- predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indicese0
- Direction
- higheste0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Genotypes Bicudo, A1, and AD1 combined the highest predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indices.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
A1 combined a high predicted genotypic value and elevated persistence index.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Material
- A1e0
- Outcome
- predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indicese0
- Direction
- higheste0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Genotypes Bicudo, A1, and AD1 combined the highest predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indices.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
AD1 combined a high predicted genotypic value and elevated persistence index.
- Taxon
- Coffea canephoraCoffea canephorat0
- Material
- AD1e0
- Outcome
- predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indicese0
- Direction
- higheste0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Genotypes Bicudo, A1, and AD1 combined the highest predicted genotypic values with elevated persistence indices.”
t0“Coffea canephora”
Claim · model-written summary
Flexible mixed models were interpreted as improving reliability of genetic evaluation.
- Taxon
- C. canephoraCoffea canephorae0
- Outcome
- reliability of genetic evaluatione0
- Direction
- improvee0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Flexible mixed model approaches improve the reliability of genetic evaluation and support resilience-oriented selection strategies in C. canephora”