Claim · model-written summary
Small parameter changes altered predicted forest site carbon uptake by up to 92 tC.ha −1, or 18% at year 500.
- Taxon
- foreste0
- Outcome
- model predictions of forest site carbon uptakee0
- Direction
- changese0
- Value
- 92 tC.ha −1e0
- Qualifier
- 18% of total site carbon at year 500e0
- Comparator
- input parameterse0
Not reportedMaterialGeneCompoundOrgan / stageInteractorInteractor roleSecond interactorSecond interactor roleTreatmentSetting
Verbatim
e0“These relatively small changes to the input parameters result in relatively large changes to the model predictions of forest site carbon uptake: up to 92 tC.ha −1 or 18% of total site carbon at year 500”
Title
Quantifying forest growth uncertainty on carbon payback times in a simple biomass carbon model
Will Rolls; Piers M Forster Environmental Research Communications 2020. doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab7ff3
Other claims from this paper (10)
- Method / resource Changes to model inputs improved fit of the forest site growth function to its training data.
- Method / resource Changed forest site carbon estimates altered calculated payback periods by up to 54 years in a clear-fell scenario.
- Observation The uncertainty was confined to slower growing forests whose training data did not extend to maturity.
- Method / resource The authors provide improved parameterisations for all forest types of the original model.
- Method / resource The revised forest parameterisations provide better fits to the underlying data.
- Method / resource The authors provide margins of error for generated forest growth curves.
- Method / resource The revised model can reproduce the earlier forest biomass model results.
- Association The earlier headline figures depend heavily on how the forest growth curve is fitted to training data.
- Recommendation The authors recommend obtaining more extensive training data, including mature forests, to reduce payback-period uncertainty.
- Recommendation The authors recommend modifying the forest growth function to reduce payback-period uncertainty.