Claim · model-written summary
Predictions for all agronomic variables differed significantly among models.
- Taxon
- potato
Solanum tuberosumt0 - Outcome
- predictions for all agronomic variablese0
- Direction
- differente0
- Value
- P < 0.001e0
- Comparator
- one model to anothere0
Not reportedMaterialGeneCompoundOrgan / stageInteractorInteractor roleSecond interactorSecond interactor roleTreatmentSettingQualifier
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001)”
t0“potato”
Title
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels
David H. Fleisher; Bruno Condori; Roberto Quiroz; et al. Global Change Biology 2016. doi:10.1111/gcb.13411
Other claims from this paper (16)
- Method / resource The median potato model ensemble replicated observed yield better than any individual model across all locations.
- Method / resource Full calibration reduced simulated yield uncertainty from 38% to 20%.
- Observation Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability.
- Method / resource Model uncertainty averaged 15% higher at low input than high input sites.
- Method / resource Low versus high input sites differed more in uncertainty for evapotranspiration, nitrogen uptake and water use efficiency than dry matter.
- Method / resource At least five partially calibrated models were needed to keep ensemble variability below field variation.
- Method / resource At least three fully calibrated models were needed to keep ensemble variability below field variation.
- Observation Carbon dioxide change did not influence model variation.
- Method / resource Temperature or rainfall departures from historical levels raised yield model variation as much as 41%.
- Method / resource Temperature or rainfall departures raised evapotranspiration model variation as much as 23%.
- Observation Temperature increases accounted for the most uncertainty among the climate factors.
- Method / resource Median ensemble potato yield rose on average 6% per 100 ppm carbon dioxide increase.
- Method / resource Median ensemble potato yield fell 4.6% per °C temperature increase.
- Method / resource Median ensemble potato yield fell 2% for each 10% rainfall decrease at nonirrigated sites.
- Method / resource Different representations of light utilization produced significantly different predictions.
- Recommendation The authors suggest that ensemble approaches can improve assessments of climate change impacts on potato.