Abstract
SYNOPSIS The harvest of the cotton crop usually begins in extreme southern Texas about July 1. By the middle of August picking is in progress throughout the southern portion of the Gulf Coast States and during the first decade of September this work extends to the more northern districts. Owing to the slow and tedious process of picking, however, harvest is extended over a period of several months, even after the plants are all fully matured, and is not usually finished until well into the winter season. In conformity with an act of Congress, the Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce, issues during each harvest season 10 preliminary reports of the amount of cotton ginned to specified dates at approximately semimonthly intervals. They are based on data collected by local agents of the Bureau who canvass the ginners. These reports are considered of great value by those interested in cotton production, as they not only place in possession of all concerned reliable information as to the rapidity with which the crop is being harvested, but by reason of affording deductions as to the amount of the final output made possible by a careful comparison of current reports with those of previous years. The earliest official estimate of the amount of cotton produced is made by the Bureau of Crop Estimates, Department of Agriculture, about December 12, of each year. While the amount of cotton ginned to a specified date or during a given ginning period has some value as a basis for forecasting the final output, the data are often misleading when the weather factor, which so largely influences the progress of harvest, is ignored. The rapidity of harvest varies greatly from year to year, depending principally on the earliness or lateness of the crop and the weather conditions prevailing during the harvest season. The relative amounts ginned during the earlier ginning periods in different seasons depends principally on the earliness or lateness of maturity, but later in the season the rapidity of harvest is determined by the prevailing weather conditions. The relation between the amount of cotton ginned during November and the prevailing weather of that month has been mathematically determined as a basis for forecasting the final output. By November 1 the cotton crop has practically matured but, on the average, 37 per cent of it remains to be ginned on that date. Fifty-seven per cent of that remaining unginned on November 1 is ginned during the month of November, on the average. These latter percentages vary greatly from year to year, depending on whether November happens to be favorable or unfavorable for picking and ginning. These variations have a very close relation to the number of rainy and cloudy days during the month, which affords a basis for computing the percentages for future years when the relation is mathematically determined. This has been done for the entire cotton belt and the results are given in the accompanying tables. The closeness of relation between the average number of rainy and cloudy days in the cotton belt and the percentage of the cotton remaining unginned on November 1 that was ginned during November, is shown by the correlation coefficient of −0.91 ±0.03 (Table 6). This is among the highest coefficients on record where meteorological data are involved. Ginning data for 15 years, 1905–1919, are available and computations have been made for this period on the basis as outlined, with excellent results. The final computations are shown in Table 8, from which it will be noted that the average error in the computed totals for the 15-year period was only 1.5 per cent, with an error as great as 2 per cent in only 5 of the 15 years, while it was less than one-half of 1 per cent in one-third of the years. By the application of the constants of the equation, shown in Table 7, to the November weather data in future years a reliable computation of the cotton crop can be made in less than 5 minutes after the amount of cotton ginned-to December 1 is reported by the Bureau of the Census. The final report of yield is not made by that Bureau until the latter part of March, or later.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
Harvest speed varied with crop maturity and weather.
Verbatim
e0“The rapidity of harvest varies greatly from year to year, depending principally on the earliness or lateness of the crop and the weather conditions prevailing during the harvest season”
Claim · model-written summary
Earlier-season ginning amounts depended principally on maturity timing.
- Taxon
- COTTON
Gossypium hirsutumt0 - Organ / stage
- earliness or lateness of maturitye0
- Outcome
- relative amounts ginned during the earlier ginning periodse0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The relative amounts ginned during the earlier ginning periods in different seasons depends principally on the earliness or lateness of maturity”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
Later-season harvest speed was determined by prevailing weather.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- rapidity of harveste0
- Setting
- prevailing weather conditionse0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“later in the season the rapidity of harvest is determined by the prevailing weather conditions”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
On November 1, an average 37 per cent of the matured cotton crop remained to be ginned.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- remains to be ginnede0
- Value
- 37 per cente0
- Qualifier
- on the averagee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“By November 1 the cotton crop has practically matured but, on the average, 37 per cent of it remains to be ginned on that date”
Claim · model-written summary
An average 57 per cent of the cotton remaining unginned on November 1 was ginned during November.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- remaining unginned on November 1 is ginned during the month of Novembere0
- Value
- Fifty-seven per cente0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Fifty-seven per cent of that remaining unginned on November 1 is ginned during the month of November, on the average”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
November weather produced substantial year-to-year variation in the November ginned percentage.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- These latter percentagese0
- Direction
- vary greatlye0
- Setting
- Novembere0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“These latter percentages vary greatly from year to year, depending on whether November happens to be favorable or unfavorable for picking and ginning”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
Rainy and cloudy days had a close negative association with the November ginned percentage, with correlation −0.91 ±0.03.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- percentage of the cotton remaining unginned on November 1 that was ginned during Novembere0
- Direction
- lowerinferrede0
- Value
- −0.91 ±0.03e0
- Setting
- cotton belte0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the average number of rainy and cloudy days in the cotton belt and the percentage of the cotton remaining unginned on November 1 that was ginned during November, is shown by the correlation coefficient of −0.91 ±0.03”
Claim · model-written summary
Computed cotton totals had an average error of 1.5 per cent over 15 years.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- average error in the computed totalse0
- Value
- 1.5 per cente0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the average error in the computed totals for the 15-year period was only 1.5 per cent”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
The computed total had at least 2 per cent error in five of 15 years.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- errore0
- Value
- 2 per cente0
- Qualifier
- 5 of the 15 yearse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“an error as great as 2 per cent in only 5 of the 15 years”
t0“COTTON”
Claim · model-written summary
The computed total had less than one-half of 1 per cent error in one-third of years.
- Taxon
- COTTONGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- errort1
- Value
- one-half of 1 per cente0
- Qualifier
- one-third of the yearse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“less than one-half of 1 per cent in one-third of the years”
t0“COTTON”
t1“error as great as 2 per cent”
Claim · model-written summary
The equation could compute the cotton crop in less than 5 minutes after December 1 ginning data became available.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume0
- Outcome
- reliable computation of the cotton crope0
- Value
- less than 5 minutese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“a reliable computation of the cotton crop can be made in less than 5 minutes after the amount of cotton ginned-to December 1 is reported”