Abstract
Abstract Northeast China ( NEC ) is not only one of the major agricultural production areas in China, but it is also the most susceptible to climate variability. This led us to investigate the impact of climate change on maize potential yield and yield gaps in this region, where maize accounts for about 30% of the nation's production. The APSIM ‐Maize model was calibrated and validated for maize phenology and yields. The validated model was then used to estimate potential yields, rain‐fed potential yields, and yield gaps for assessing the climate impacts on maize productivity in NEC . During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC , whereas the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease. When the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield. A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield. However, the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield, consistent with our finding that farmers adopted longer season hybrids for which the increase in minimum temperature provided better conditions for germination, emergence, and grain filling during night time. The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm). Our results indicate that regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC . Within NEC , on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields, indicating a large exploitable yield gap, which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC .
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Claims 10
Claim · model-written summary
A simulated increase in maximum temperature had a negative impact on potential and rain-fed potential maize yield.
- Treatment
- a simulated increase of maximum temperaturee1
- Outcome
- potential yielde1
- Direction
- negative impacte1
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e1“a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield”
Claim · model-written summary
A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant change in potential or rain-fed potential maize yield.
- Treatment
- A simulated increase in minimum temperaturee2
- Outcome
- potential or rain‐fed potential yielde2
- Direction
- no significant changese2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e2“A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield”
Claim · model-written summary
The increase in minimum temperature had a positive impact on on-farm maize yield.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e3“the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield”
Claim · model-written summary
Farmers adopted longer season maize hybrids.
- Outcome
- adopted longer season hybridse4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e4“farmers adopted longer season hybrids”
Claim · model-written summary
The gap between potential and rain-fed potential yields is larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm).
- Treatment
- lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm)e5
- Outcome
- gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yieldse5
- Direction
- largere5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e5“The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm)”
Claim · model-written summary
The largest yield gaps between rain-fed potential and on-farm maize yields are in the southeast of NEC.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e6“regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC”
Claim · model-written summary
On-farm maize yields in NEC averaged only 51% of potential yields.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e7“Within NEC , on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields”
Claim · model-written summary
Effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide use and planting density are suggested to raise maize production in NEC.
- Outcome
- increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting densitye1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e1“which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC”
Claim · model-written summary
Maize growing seasons in NEC show a warming trend from 1981 to 2010.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC”
Claim · model-written summary
Solar radiation and total precipitation trends in NEC tended to decrease over 1981-2010.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China”
e1“the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease”