Abstract
Crop production would decline in the Midwestern U.S. from climate change following a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic crop growth model, we simulated the response of maize and soybeans to cooler, drier, darker conditions from war-related smoke. We combined observed climate conditions for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri with output from a general circulation simulation that injected 5 Tg of elemental carbon into the upper troposphere. Both maize and soybeans show notable reductions for a decade after the event. Maize yields would decline 10-40 percent while soybeans would drop 2-20 percent. Temporal variation in magnitude of yield for both crops generally follows the variation in climatic anomalies; greatest decline is in the five years following the 5 Tg event, then gradually levels out. Yield decline for both crops appears linked to changes in growing period duration and, less markedly, to reduced precipitation and altered maximum daily temperature during growth. Seasonal average of daily maximum temperature difference between the control and nuclear scenarios has a quadratic relationship to yield differences; extreme changes create increased yield loss, but mean changes are neutral.
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Claims 7
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated maize yields in the Midwestern U.S. would decline by 10-40 percent after a regional nuclear conflict.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Maize yields would decline 10-40 percent”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated soybean yields would drop by 2-20 percent after the regional nuclear conflict.
- Taxon
- soybeans
Glycine maxe0 - Outcome
- yieldse0
- Direction
- drope0
- Value
- 2-20 percente0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Maize yields would decline 10-40 percent while soybeans would drop 2-20 percent”
Claim · model-written summary
Both maize and soybeans show notable simulated yield reductions for a decade after the event.
- Taxon
- maize and soybeansGlycine max
Zea mayse0 - Outcome
- notable reductionse0
- Direction
- reductionse0
- Qualifier
- for a decade after the evente0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Both maize and soybeans show notable reductions for a decade after the event”
Claim · model-written summary
The simulated yield decline is greatest in the five years following the 5 Tg event and then gradually levels out.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“greatest decline is in the five years following the 5 Tg event, then gradually levels out”
Claim · model-written summary
Yield decline for both crops appears linked to changes in growing period duration and, less markedly, to reduced precipitation and altered maximum daily temperature during growth.
Not reportedDirection
Verbatim
e0“Yield decline for both crops appears linked to changes in growing period duration and, less markedly, to reduced precipitation and altered maximum daily temperature during growth”
Claim · model-written summary
The seasonal average difference in daily maximum temperature between the control and nuclear scenarios has a quadratic relationship to yield differences.
- Treatment
- daily maximum temperature differencee0
- Outcome
- yield differencese0
- Qualifier
- quadratic relationshipe0
- Comparator
- controle0
Not reportedTaxonDirection
Verbatim
e0“Seasonal average of daily maximum temperature difference between the control and nuclear scenarios has a quadratic relationship to yield differences”
Claim · model-written summary
Extreme temperature changes create increased yield loss, but mean changes are neutral.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“extreme changes create increased yield loss, but mean changes are neutral”