Abstract
Abstract. A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 ∘C warming to 2.0 ∘C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 ∘C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.
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Claims 16
Claim · model-written summary
Climate change projected shorter crop growth duration.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events”
Claim · model-written summary
Climate change projected more extreme events.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events”
Claim · model-written summary
Moderate climate change could enhance canopy photosynthesis.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields”
Claim · model-written summary
Moderate climate change could enhance biomass accumulation and yields.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields”
Claim · model-written summary
Moderate change slightly worsened the maize growth environment.
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment”
Claim · model-written summary
Moderate change made the wheat growth environment more appropriate.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume0 - Outcome
- growth environmente0
- Direction
- more appropriatee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Moderate change made the rice growth environment more appropriate.
- Taxon
- rice
Oryza sativae0 - Outcome
- growth environmente0
- Direction
- more appropriatee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat yield was projected to change +3.9% at 1.5 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat yield was projected to change +8.6% at 2.0 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Rice yield was projected to change +4.1% at 1.5 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Rice yield was projected to change +9.4% at 2.0 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Maize yield was projected to change +0.2% at 1.5 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Maize yield was projected to change −1.7% at 2.0 °C.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C)”
Claim · model-written summary
Yield variability increased from 1.5 to 2.0 °C warming.
- Outcome
- variability of crop yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Qualifier
- 2.0 ∘C warminge0
- Comparator
- 1.5 ∘C warminge0
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 ∘C warming to 2.0 ∘C warming”
Claim · model-written summary
Probability of a yield decrease declined from 1.5 to 2.0 °C warming.
Not reportedTaxon
Verbatim
e0“the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors consider 2.0 °C warming more suitable for crop production in China.
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Verbatim
e0“the 2.0 ∘C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China”