Abstract
Abstract Background The implementation of hybrid Bt cotton unique to India has been heralded as a grand success by government agencies, seed companies and other proponents, and yet yields have stagnated at low levels and production costs have risen 2.5–3-fold. The low-yield hybrid cotton system of India contributes thousands of farmer suicides to the annual national toll. Conceptual and methodological barriers have hindered bioeconomic analysis of the ecological and social sustainability of such cross-scale agro-ecological problems in time and geographic space, under global technology and climate change. As a paradigm shift, we use conceptually simple, parameter-sparse, theoretically based, mechanistic, weather-driven physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) to deconstruct the bio-economics of the Indian cotton system. Results Our analysis of Indian hybrid cotton system explains some extant ecological and economic problems, and suggests a viable solution. Specifically, the model accurately captured the age-stage mass dynamics of rainfed and irrigated cotton growth/development and the interactions with the key pest pink bollworm across five south-central Indian states, and enabled identification of proximate bioeconomic factors responsible for low yield and their relationship to farmer suicides. The results are reinforced by analysis of Ministry of Agriculture annual state-level data. We explain why short-season, high-density non-GM cotton is a highly viable solution for Indian cotton farmers in rainfed and irrigated cotton areas of the five states, and possibly nationally. The transition from a theoretical bioeconomic construct to a real-world regional bioeconomic analysis proved seamless. Conclusions The hybrid long-season Bt technology for rainfed and irrigated cotton is unique to India, and is a value capture mechanism. This technology is suboptimal leading to stagnant yields, high input costs, increased insecticide use, and low farmer incomes that increase economic distress that is a proximate cause of cotton farmer suicides. The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton without commensurate increases in yield. Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides. The GM hybrid technology is inappropriate for incorporation in short-season high-density varieties.
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Claims 10
Claim · model-written summary
The model captured the age-stage mass dynamics of rainfed and irrigated cotton and its interactions with pink bollworm across five states.
- Taxon
- cotton
Gossypium hirsutume0 - Treatment
- rainfed and irrigatede0
- Interactor
- pink bollworm
Pectinophora gossypiellae0pest - Outcome
- age-stage mass dynamicse0
- Setting
- five south-central Indian statese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the model accurately captured the age-stage mass dynamics of rainfed and irrigated cotton growth/development and the interactions with the key pest pink bollworm across five south-central Indian states”
Claim · model-written summary
The model identified proximate bioeconomic factors responsible for low cotton yield and their relationship to farmer suicides.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- proximate bioeconomic factorse1
- Outcome
- farmer suicidese1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Bio-economics of Indian hybrid Bt cotton and farmer suicides”
e1“enabled identification of proximate bioeconomic factors responsible for low yield and their relationship to farmer suicides”
Claim · model-written summary
Short-season, high-density non-GM cotton is a highly viable solution for Indian cotton farmers.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume2
- Outcome
- highly viable solutione2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“short-season, high-density non-GM cotton is a highly viable solution for Indian cotton farmers”
Claim · model-written summary
Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume3
- Treatment
- Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varietiese3
- Outcome
- rainfed cotton yielde3
- Direction
- increaseinferrede3
- Value
- doublee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides”
Claim · model-written summary
Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could reduce cotton costs.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume3
- Treatment
- Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varietiese3
- Outcome
- costse3
- Direction
- reducee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides”
Claim · model-written summary
Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could decrease insecticide use in cotton.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume3
- Treatment
- Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varietiese3
- Outcome
- insecticide usee3
- Direction
- decreasee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides”
Claim · model-written summary
The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton without commensurate increases in yield.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume4
- Treatment
- current GM Bt technologye4
- Outcome
- yielde4
- Direction
- without commensurate increasese4
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e4“The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton without commensurate increases in yield”
Claim · model-written summary
The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume4
- Treatment
- current GM Bt technologye4
- Outcome
- costse4
- Direction
- addse4
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e4“The current GM Bt technology adds costs in rainfed cotton without commensurate increases in yield”
Claim · model-written summary
The hybrid long-season Bt technology is suboptimal and is a proximate cause of cotton farmer suicides.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume5
- Outcome
- farmer suicidese5
- Qualifier
- suboptimale5
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“This technology is suboptimal leading to stagnant yields, high input costs, increased insecticide use, and low farmer incomes that increase economic distress that is a proximate cause of cotton farmer suicides”
Claim · model-written summary
Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could help ameliorate farmer suicides.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutume3
- Treatment
- Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varietiese3
- Outcome
- suicidese3
- Direction
- help amelioratee3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“Non-GM pure-line high-density short-season varieties could double rainfed cotton yield, reduce costs, decrease insecticide use, and help ameliorate suicides”
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