Paper · 2022 · Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

Exploration of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their impact on rice production in Burma in 1901–1939 during the colonial period

Badri Bhakta Shrestha; Akiyuki Kawasaki; Tomoshige Inoue; et al.

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verbatim quotes
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citations
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Open access · cc-by

Abstract

Abstract Climate is one of the main factors for rice crop growth. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and rice production during the period from 1901 to 1939 in Burma can give a clear picture of the impact of climate variability on rice yield since there were fewer human interventions on the catchment and almost no use of chemical fertilizer or high-yielding rice varieties at that time. However, the quantitative analysis of climate variability and its impact on rice production has not yet been paid sufficient scientific attention for the historic period. First, the changing trends of rainfall and rice yield between 1901 and 1939 were analyzed, including the effect of rainfall variability on rice production from multiple perspectives regarding rainfall characteristics, such as seasonal rainfall, various rainfall indices, rainfall anomalies, and monthly rainfall variability. Then, the relationship between rice yield and rainfall was investigated using multiple regression analysis to show how rainfall spatial and temporal variabilities have influenced rice yield and production, including essential factors that affected rice yield in each Burma district. The historical development of rice production in Burma during the period was also explored. Our findings indicate that not only the annual variability of rainfall, but also its monthly variability within a particular year likely influenced rice production. Excessive rainfall in the early or middle stage of crop growth or less during the early-middle or latter half of crop growth possibly caused the rice yield reduction in Burma during the colonial period. Furthermore, the results indicated that although rainfall anomalies widely differed from period to period, rice yield anomalies clearly showed the distinction of periods with higher or lower rice yields than average rice yield. Mostly higher than average rice yield was observed before 1910 in the Coastal Zone and before 1918 in the Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zones. The results of this study imply that selected rainfall indices could affect rice yield, positively or negatively, including the varied magnitude of their effects from one district to another, depending on climatic zones and agricultural ecosystems.

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Claims 7

Associationauthor interpretationoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Annual and monthly rainfall variability likely influenced rice production.

Outcome
rice productione0
Qualifier
likelye0
Setting
Burmae1

Not reportedDirection

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“not only the annual variability of rainfall, but also its monthly variability within a particular year likely influenced rice production”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1311–1447 · show in text ↑
e1

“rice yield reduction in Burma during the colonial period”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1594–1650 · show in text ↑
Associationauthor interpretationoriginal resultnegativemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Excessive rainfall early or midway through growth possibly reduced rice yield.

Treatment
Excessive rainfall in the early or middle stage of crop growthe0
Outcome
rice yielde0
Direction
reductione0
Qualifier
possiblye0
Setting
Burmae0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Excessive rainfall in the early or middle stage of crop growth or less during the early-middle or latter half of crop growth possibly caused the rice yield reduction in Burma during the colonial period”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1449–1650 · show in text ↑
Associationauthor interpretationoriginal resultnegativemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Low rainfall during the early-middle or latter half of growth possibly reduced rice yield.

Treatment
less during the early-middle or latter half of crop growthe0
Outcome
rice yielde0
Direction
reductione0
Qualifier
possiblye0
Setting
Burmae0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Excessive rainfall in the early or middle stage of crop growth or less during the early-middle or latter half of crop growth possibly caused the rice yield reduction in Burma during the colonial period”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1449–1650 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Rice yield anomalies distinguished periods of above- and below-average yield despite variable rainfall anomalies.

Outcome
rice yield anomaliese0
Direction
higher or lowere0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“although rainfall anomalies widely differed from period to period, rice yield anomalies clearly showed the distinction of periods with higher or lower rice yields than average rice yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1692–1878 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Coastal Zone rice yield was mostly above average before 1910.

Outcome
rice yielde0
Direction
highere0
Qualifier
before 1910e0
Comparator
average rice yielde0
Setting
Coastal Zonee0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“Mostly higher than average rice yield was observed before 1910 in the Coastal Zone”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1880–1962 · show in text ↑
Observationobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Rice yields in the Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zones were mostly above average before 1918.

Outcome
rice yielde1
Direction
highere1
Qualifier
before 1918e0
Comparator
average rice yielde1
Setting
Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zonese1

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“before 1918 in the Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zones”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1967–2013 · show in text ↑
e1

“Mostly higher than average rice yield was observed before 1910 in the Coastal Zone and before 1918 in the Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zones”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1880–2013 · show in text ↑
Associationauthor interpretationoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Selected rainfall indices had positive or negative associations with rice yield that varied by district.

Outcome
rice yielde0
Direction
positively or negativelye0
Qualifier
from one district to anothere0
Setting
climatic zones and agricultural ecosystemse0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Oryza sativa
Oryza sativa · Taxon · picture from its Wikimedia Commons categoryDesmanthus4food · CC BY-SA 3.0 us · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“selected rainfall indices could affect rice yield, positively or negatively, including the varied magnitude of their effects from one district to another, depending on climatic zones and agricultural ecosystems”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 2052–2262 · show in text ↑