Abstract
Background Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to predict species ranges and their future distribution under climate change scenarios, mostly using only climatic variables. An important factor that is usually neglected, is the habitat of the species that are being modelled. Even when included, it is often considered a fixed factor, but in reality, it is also subjected to changes.Aims In this study, we assessed if this omission can lead to different projected distributions of the species.Methods For this purpose, we applied an ensemble of SDMs, and we projected the distribution of rare bryophyte species in Scotland in the 2050s. Bryophytes are generally very climate-reliant and lend themselves to bioclimatic studies, and we selected species different grades of affinity with blanket bogs, which are threatened by climate change. Blanket bog extension was included in the model as an explanatory variable, and the models were run for three 2050s scenarios: once with the current blanket bog distribution and twice using the blanket bog distribution derived from two bioclimatic models (Lindsay modified and Blanket Bog Tree model), under the same climate change projections.Results The results showed some differences in the predicted future distribution of those species with a strong relationship with blanket bogs, when habitat changes were accounted for. For example, Sphagnum majus, the species with the highest affinity with blanket bog in our study, was not predicted to change its future distribution when blanket bog is held constant at the current level, but was predicted to lose up to 60% of its current suitable area when the projected loss of blanket bog is included.Conclusion Our results suggest that adding future habitat changes could improve the reliability of SDMs in the first steps of planning for conservation and restoration.
Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record, shown for indexing and research. Copyright remains with the authors or the publisher. Read at the source ↗
The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 4
Claim · model-written summary
Including habitat changes gave some differences in the predicted future distribution of rare bryophytes with a strong link to blanket bogs.
Verbatim
t0“Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland”
e1“The results showed some differences in the predicted future distribution of those species with a strong relationship with blanket bogs, when habitat changes were accounted for”
Claim · model-written summary
Sphagnum majus was not predicted to change its future distribution when blanket bog is held at its current level.
- Taxon
- Sphagnum majus
_6017.JPG?width=60)
Sphagnum majuse2 - Treatment
- blanket bog is held constant at the current levele2
- Outcome
- future distributione2
- Direction
- not predicted to changee2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
_6017.JPG?width=500)
Verbatim
t0“Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland”
e2“For example, Sphagnum majus, the species with the highest affinity with blanket bog in our study, was not predicted to change its future distribution when blanket bog is held constant at the current level, but was predicted to lose up to 60% of its current suitable area when the projected loss of blanket bog is included”
Claim · model-written summary
Sphagnum majus was predicted to lose up to 60% of its current suitable area when the projected loss of blanket bog is included.
- Taxon
- Sphagnum majusSphagnum majuse2
- Treatment
- projected loss of blanket bog is includede2
- Outcome
- current suitable areae2
- Direction
- losee2
- Value
- up to 60%e2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland”
e2“For example, Sphagnum majus, the species with the highest affinity with blanket bog in our study, was not predicted to change its future distribution when blanket bog is held constant at the current level, but was predicted to lose up to 60% of its current suitable area when the projected loss of blanket bog is included”
Claim · model-written summary
Adding future habitat changes could improve the reliability of species distribution models in early conservation and restoration planning.
Verbatim
t0“Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland”
e3“Our results suggest that adding future habitat changes could improve the reliability of SDMs in the first steps of planning for conservation and restoration”