Abstract
Abstract Rising temperatures cause advanced phenology of grapevines and increased sugar concentration in berries, which ultimately modify variety suitability in a given region. Here, four bioclimatic indices and a refined grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model were employed to assess the suitability of six winegrape varieties across six winegrape-growing regions of China under historical climate conditions (1961–2020). First, four indices were compared between two periods, one before (P1) and one after (P2) an abrupt climate change events identified during 1988–2002 in these regions. Results showed three temperature- related indices increased in six regions, while the first fall frost day was delayed by 0–16 days in five out of the six regions during P2 compared with P1. Second, GSR model was applied to simulate target sugar concentrations as a proxy for grape harvest dates (GHDs). Direct utilization of original GSR model yielded unsatisfactory predictions with clear bias. Consequently, GSR model was recalibrated with local data to obtain an acceptable performance with R2 and NRMSE values of 0.83 and 2.8% as well as 0.83 and 3.1% for the calibration and validation datasets, respectively, and further simulated GHDs of six varieties with advanced values of 6–30 days in six regions for P2 in comparison with P1. To provide a holistic view of freezing injury risk before harvest, comprehensive freezing injury index (CFI) was developed by integrating the frequency, duration and severity of the freezing risk. CFI decreased (2–60%) during P2 in all regions and the magnitude of decrease was elevation dependent. These findings provide valuable insights into the selection of varieties that can more reliably achieve fully mature fruit, producing more balanced wines with greater typicity under warming climate.
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Claims 8
Claim · model-written summary
Three temperature indices increased across six winegrape regions in the later period.
- Taxon
- winegrape
Vitis viniferat0 - Outcome
- temperature- related indicese0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Setting
- six regionse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“three temperature- related indices increased in six regions”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
First fall frost was delayed by 0–16 days in five of six regions.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- first fall frost daye0
- Direction
- delayede0
- Value
- 0–16 dayse0
- Comparator
- P1e0
- Setting
- five out of the six regionse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the first fall frost day was delayed by 0–16 days in five out of the six regions during P2 compared with P1.”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
The original GSR model yielded biased harvest-date predictions.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- unsatisfactory predictions with clear biase0
- Comparator
- original GSR modele0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Direct utilization of original GSR model yielded unsatisfactory predictions with clear bias.”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
Recalibrated GSR model calibration performance reached R2 0.83 and NRMSE 2.8%.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- R2 and NRMSE valuese0
- Value
- 0.83 and 2.8%e0
- Qualifier
- calibratione0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“GSR model was recalibrated with local data to obtain an acceptable performance with R2 and NRMSE values of 0.83 and 2.8% as well as 0.83 and 3.1% for the calibration and validation datasets, respectively”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
Recalibrated GSR model validation performance reached R2 0.83 and NRMSE 3.1%.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- R2 and NRMSE valuese0
- Value
- 0.83 and 3.1%e0
- Qualifier
- validation datasetse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“GSR model was recalibrated with local data to obtain an acceptable performance with R2 and NRMSE values of 0.83 and 2.8% as well as 0.83 and 3.1% for the calibration and validation datasets, respectively”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated harvest dates advanced by 6–30 days across six varieties and regions in P2.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- GHDse0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Value
- 6–30 dayse0
- Comparator
- P1e0
- Setting
- six regionse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“simulated GHDs of six varieties with advanced values of 6–30 days in six regions for P2 in comparison with P1.”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
Freezing injury index decreased 2–60% in P2 across all regions.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“CFI decreased (2–60%) during P2 in all regions and the magnitude of decrease was elevation dependent.”
t0“winegrape”
Claim · model-written summary
The magnitude of freezing injury reduction depended on elevation.
- Taxon
- winegrapeVitis viniferat0
- Outcome
- magnitude of decreasee0
- Setting
- elevatione0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the magnitude of decrease was elevation dependent.”
t0“winegrape”