Paper · 2025 · Forest Ecosystems

Developing and evaluating satellite-derived phenology and physiology indicators for modeling annual gross primary productivity variability

Hanliang Gui; Qinchuan Xin; Xuewen Zhou; et al.

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Open access · cc-by-nc-nd

Abstract

Vegetation annual gross primary production (AGPP), the total yearly carbon assimilation via photosynthesis, serves as a key indicator of ecosystem carbon uptake. While AGPP variations are jointly influenced by both vegetation phenology and physiology, the effectiveness of satellite-derived indicators in capturing these variations has not been fully evaluated. This study develops and evaluates the satellite-derived phenology and physiology indicators for modeling AGPP variability. We assessed the performance of satellite-derived metrics, including solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), leaf area index (LAI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), in capturing AGPP variations. Among these, SIF-based indicators exhibited the highest accuracy (Pearson's r ​= ​0.79; root mean square error ​= ​414.7 gC·m −2 ·year −1 ), outperforming LAI- and EVI-based indicators. To further investigate the mechanisms driving AGPP variability, we used a structural equation model based on in situ observations to quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate on AGPP through phenology and physiology. Our results reveal that vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology. Furthermore, we found that globally, SIF-derived phenology indicators tend to be lower than those from LAI and EVI, whereas SIF-derived physiology indicators are elevated in tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. These findings highlight the potential of satellite-derived indicators in advancing AGPP modeling and emphasize the predominant role of vegetation physiology in regulating ecosystem carbon uptake. This study contributes to a refined understanding of global carbon cycle dynamics and provides insights for improving large-scale carbon assessments in the context of climate change.

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Claims 5

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

SIF indicators had the highest AGPP prediction accuracy, with Pearson r of 0.79.

Taxon
vegetatione1
Outcome
accuracye0
Direction
higheste0
Value
0.79e0
Comparator
LAI- and EVI-based indicatorse0

Verbatim

e0

“SIF-based indicators exhibited the highest accuracy (Pearson's r ​= ​0.79; root mean square error ​= ​414.7 gC·m −2 ·year −1 ), outperforming LAI- and EVI-based indicators”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 702–873 · show in text ↑
t0

“phenology and physiology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 44–68 · show in text ↑
e1

“vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1126–1269 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultpositivemeasured

Claim · model-written summary

SIF indicators had an AGPP prediction root mean square error of 414.7 gC·m −2 ·year −1.

Taxon
vegetatione1
Outcome
root mean square errore0
Direction
higheste0
Value
414.7 gC·m −2 ·year −1e0
Comparator
LAI- and EVI-based indicatorse0

Verbatim

e0

“SIF-based indicators exhibited the highest accuracy (Pearson's r ​= ​0.79; root mean square error ​= ​414.7 gC·m −2 ·year −1 ), outperforming LAI- and EVI-based indicators”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 702–873 · show in text ↑
t0

“phenology and physiology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 44–68 · show in text ↑
e1

“vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1126–1269 · show in text ↑
Associationobservedoriginal resultsimulated

Claim · model-written summary

Vegetation physiology, especially seasonal maximum gross primary production, had a more dominant role than phenology in AGPP variability.

Taxon
vegetatione0
Outcome
AGPPe0
Direction
more dominante0
Comparator
phenologye0

Not reportedOrgan / stage

Verbatim

e0

“vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1126–1269 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

Globally, SIF-derived phenology indicators were lower than LAI and EVI indicators.

Taxon
vegetatione1
Outcome
phenology indicatorse0
Direction
lowere0
Comparator
LAI and EVIe0
Setting
globallye0

Verbatim

e0

“globally, SIF-derived phenology indicators tend to be lower than those from LAI and EVI”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1298–1385 · show in text ↑
t0

“phenology and physiology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 44–68 · show in text ↑
e1

“vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1126–1269 · show in text ↑
Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

SIF-derived physiology indicators were elevated in tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere.

Taxon
vegetatione1
Outcome
physiology indicatorse0
Direction
elevatede0
Setting
tropical regions and the Southern Hemispheree0

Not reportedComparatorValue

Verbatim

e0

“SIF-derived physiology indicators are elevated in tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1395–1489 · show in text ↑
t0

“phenology and physiology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 44–68 · show in text ↑
e1

“vegetation physiology, particularly the seasonal maximum gross primary production, plays a more dominant role in regulating AGPP than phenology”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 1126–1269 · show in text ↑