Abstract
Climate change is altering the timing of species’ life-cycle events (i.e., phenology), but the rates of phenological shifts vary across taxa. These mismatches in phenological response may disrupt interactions between interdependent species, such as plants and their pollinators, which may lead to reduced plant reproduction via pollen limitation and thus contribute to secondary extinction risks for plants. However, secondary extinction risk is rarely assessed under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we used ca. 15,000 crowdsourced specimen records of Viola species and their solitary bee pollinators, spanning 120 y across the eastern United States, and integrated climate data, phenological information, and species distribution models to quantify the risk of secondary plant extinction associated with phenological mismatch with their bee pollinators. We further examined geographical patterns in secondary extinction risk for plants and explored how their interactions between plants and generalist versus specialist pollinators influence such risk. Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes. Additionally, the sensitivity of secondary local extinction risk to phenological mismatch with both generalist and specialist bee pollinators varies by latitude, with specialist bees showing a sharper decline at higher latitudes. Our findings demonstrate that existing conservation priorities based solely on primary extinction risk directly caused by climate change may be insufficient to support self-sustaining populations of plants. Thus, incorporating secondary extinction risk resulting from ecological mismatches between plants and pollinators into future global conservation frameworks should be carefully considered.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude under future climate change, posing a greater threat to plant-bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes.
- Interactor
- bee
_Apis_mellifera_(female)_-_on_viburnum_tinus_flowers.jpg?width=60)
Apis melliferae1pollinator - Outcome
- Secondary local extinction riske1
- Direction
- increasese1
- Setting
- northern latitudese1
ViolaOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
_Apis_mellifera_(female)_-_on_viburnum_tinus_flowers.jpg?width=500)
Verbatim
e1“Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes”
Claim · model-written summary
The sensitivity of secondary local extinction risk to phenological mismatch with generalist and specialist bee pollinators varies by latitude.
- Treatment
- phenological mismatche2
- Interactor
- generalist and specialist bee pollinatorse2pollinator
- Outcome
- sensitivity of secondary local extinction riske2
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes”
e2“Additionally, the sensitivity of secondary local extinction risk to phenological mismatch with both generalist and specialist bee pollinators varies by latitude, with specialist bees showing a sharper decline at higher latitudes”
Claim · model-written summary
The sensitivity of secondary local extinction risk to phenological mismatch with specialist bees showed a sharper decline at higher latitudes.
- Treatment
- phenological mismatche2
- Interactor
- specialist beese2pollinator
- Outcome
- sensitivity of secondary local extinction riske2
- Direction
- sharper declinee2
- Setting
- higher latitudese2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes”
e2“Additionally, the sensitivity of secondary local extinction risk to phenological mismatch with both generalist and specialist bee pollinators varies by latitude, with specialist bees showing a sharper decline at higher latitudes”
Claim · model-written summary
Conservation priorities based solely on primary extinction risk may be insufficient to support self-sustaining populations of Viola spp.
- Outcome
- conservation priorities based solely on primary extinction riske2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes”
e2“Our findings demonstrate that existing conservation priorities based solely on primary extinction risk directly caused by climate change may be insufficient to support self-sustaining populations of plants”
Claim · model-written summary
Secondary extinction risk from plant-pollinator mismatch should be incorporated into future global conservation frameworks.
- Outcome
- incorporating secondary extinction riske2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Secondary local extinction risk of Viola spp. increases with latitude, indicating that future climate change will pose a greater threat to plant–bee pollinator networks at northern latitudes”
e2“incorporating secondary extinction risk resulting from ecological mismatches between plants and pollinators into future global conservation frameworks should be carefully considered”