Abstract
Hazelnut ( Corylus avellana L .) is a high-value crop for the global confectionery industry, yet its production chain is increasingly challenged by aflatoxin contamination caused by Aspergillus flavus . In Azerbaijan, one of the world’s leading hazelnut producers, recurrent exceedances of European aflatoxin limits have resulted in economic and trade constraints. In this context, predictive models represent valuable decision-support tools to anticipate periods of elevated contamination risk and to support timely pre-harvest management strategies. This study presents AFLA-hazelnut, a process-based, weather-driven model developed to assess the risk of A. flavus infection and aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) contamination in hazelnut orchards. The approach integrates a phenological sub-model for hazelnut development, based on literature, with a fungal sub-model that simulates infection according to temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and kernel water activity (a w ). A hazelnut-specific a w curve was developed to describe kernel water dynamics during the susceptible reproductive stage and to support hourly simulations.The model produces two outputs: an infection risk index (IH) and an aflatoxin risk index (AFB1-I). Model outputs were evaluated using independent pre-harvest field data. IH showed a coherent association with observed fungal occurrence, indicating that the model captures biologically meaningful gradients of infection pressure. In contrast, the limited number of aflatoxin-positive samples did not allow quantitative validation of the AFB1-I index, which remains supported by indirect evidence and model structure. AFLA-hazelnut represents the first process-based framework developed to describe A. flavus infection dynamics and support aflatoxin risk assessment in hazelnuts.
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Claims 2
Claim · model-written summary
The infection risk index IH of the AFLA-hazelnut model showed a coherent association with observed fungal occurrence in independent pre-harvest field data.
- Taxon
- Hazelnute0
- Interactor
- Aspergillus flavus
Aspergillus flavuse0pathogen - Outcome
- coherent association with observed fungal occurrencee1
- Comparator
- observed fungal occurrencee1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Hazelnut ( Corylus avellana L .) is a high-value crop for the global confectionery industry, yet its production chain is increasingly challenged by aflatoxin contamination caused by Aspergillus flavus”
e1“IH showed a coherent association with observed fungal occurrence, indicating that the model captures biologically meaningful gradients of infection pressure”
Claim · model-written summary
The AFB1-I aflatoxin risk index could not be quantitatively validated because of the limited number of aflatoxin-positive samples.
- Taxon
- Hazelnute0
- Outcome
- quantitative validation of the AFB1-I indexe2
- Qualifier
- limited number of aflatoxin-positive samplese2
Not reportedDirection
Verbatim
e0“Hazelnut ( Corylus avellana L .) is a high-value crop for the global confectionery industry, yet its production chain is increasingly challenged by aflatoxin contamination caused by Aspergillus flavus”
e2“the limited number of aflatoxin-positive samples did not allow quantitative validation of the AFB1-I index, which remains supported by indirect evidence and model structure”