Claim · model-written summary
Compound rates of yield gain assumed in many econometric projections are not consistent with historical yield trends.
- Taxon
- major cereal cropse0
- Outcome
- compound rates of yield gaine4
- Qualifier
- not consistent with historical yield trendse4
Not reportedMaterialGeneCompoundOrgan / stageInteractorInteractor roleSecond interactorSecond interactor roleTreatmentComparatorSettingDirectionValue
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e4“Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends”
Title
Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends
Patricio Grassini; Kent M. Eskridge; Kenneth G. Cassman Nature Communications 2013. doi:10.1038/ncomms3918
Other claims from this paper (6)
- Observation Linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends of major cereal crops.
- Observation The relative rate of yield gain of major cereal crops decreases over time.
- Observation Rice in eastern Asia shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Observation Wheat in northwest Europe shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Observation The regions with yield plateaus account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production.
- Recommendation The authors recommend that estimates of future food production capacity be based on an analysis of past crop yield trends with a robust statistical framework.