Claim · model-written summary
The relative rate of yield gain of major cereal crops decreases over time.
Not reportedMaterialGeneCompoundOrgan / stageInteractorInteractor roleSecond interactorSecond interactor roleTreatmentComparatorSettingValueQualifier
Verbatim
e0“Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops”
e1“Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time”
Title
Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends
Patricio Grassini; Kent M. Eskridge; Kenneth G. Cassman Nature Communications 2013. doi:10.1038/ncomms3918
Other claims from this paper (6)
- Observation Linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends of major cereal crops.
- Observation Rice in eastern Asia shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Observation Wheat in northwest Europe shows yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain.
- Observation The regions with yield plateaus account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production.
- Observation Compound rates of yield gain assumed in many econometric projections are not consistent with historical yield trends.
- Recommendation The authors recommend that estimates of future food production capacity be based on an analysis of past crop yield trends with a robust statistical framework.