Abstract
Black spruce (Picea mariana) is the most abundant tree species in the boreal biome, but little is known about how climate warming may change recruitment in peatlands, especially those affected by permafrost thaw. We used results from a seven-year study in northern Manitoba, Canada, to address the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of early life history transitions on P. mariana recruitment? (2) How are these transitions mediated by biological and environmental factors, including competition, facilitation, disease, herbivory, water table depth, and soil nutrients? (3) Do interactions among these factors create additional recruitment limitations beyond those imposed by environmental factors changing with climate warming, such as hydrology? Seed rain was measured over six years on forested permafrost plateaus and in neighboring collapse scar bogs. Seed germination and seedling survival and growth were measured over 4-5 years in collapse scars and assessed across a three-level water table treatment. Survival and growth experiments examined additional combinations of above- and belowground vascular plant competition and fertilizer addition. Results showed that failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfaces and reduced survival of seedlings in wetter microsites were primary constraints. Seed influx was significantly lower in collapse scars but likely did not limit recruitment. Biological and environmental factors mediating these life history transitions also differed in relative importance, and interactions among them tended to amplify recruitment limitation. Seedling survival was most strongly controlled by fast-growing mosses in wet microsites but also was influenced by apparent drowning in wet plots, herbivory, and loss of foliage caused by a fungal pathogen. Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens. Multiple, interacting factors will affect P. mariana establishment in boreal peatlands during climate warming. Generalizations about recruitment relying on few environmental gradients sensitive to climate change, such as water table, may therefore not fully capture the complexities of establishment.
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Claims 12
Claim · model-written summary
Failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfaces constrained recruitment.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Interactor
- mosse0other
- Outcome
- failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfacese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfaces and reduced survival of seedlings in wetter microsites were primary constraints”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Seedling survival was reduced in wetter microsites.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- survival of seedlingse0
- Direction
- reducede0
- Setting
- wetter micrositese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“reduced survival of seedlings in wetter microsites”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Seed influx was significantly lower in collapse scars but likely did not limit recruitment.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- Seed influxe0
- Direction
- lowere0
- Qualifier
- likely did not limit recruitmente0
- Setting
- collapse scarse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seed influx was significantly lower in collapse scars but likely did not limit recruitment”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Biological and environmental factor interactions tended to amplify recruitment limitation.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- recruitment limitatione0
- Direction
- amplifye0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“interactions among them tended to amplify recruitment limitation”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Fast-growing mosses in wet microsites most strongly controlled seedling survival.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Interactor
- fast-growing mossese0other
- Outcome
- Seedling survivale0
- Setting
- wet micrositese0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seedling survival was most strongly controlled by fast-growing mosses in wet microsites”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Apparent drowning in wet plots influenced seedling survival.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- apparent drowninge0
- Setting
- wet plotse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“also was influenced by apparent drowning in wet plots”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Herbivory influenced seedling survival.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- herbivorye0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“apparent drowning in wet plots, herbivory, and loss of foliage caused by a fungal pathogen”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Fungal pathogen foliage loss influenced seedling survival.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Interactor
- a fungal pathogene0pathogen
- Outcome
- loss of foliagee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“loss of foliage caused by a fungal pathogen”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Water table depth strongly controlled seedling growth.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- Seedling growthe0
- Setting
- water table depthe0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Nutrient levels strongly controlled seedling growth.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- Seedling growthe0
- Setting
- nutriente0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Competition levels strongly controlled seedling growth.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Outcome
- Seedling growthe0
- Setting
- competition levelse0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens”
t0“Picea mariana”
Claim · model-written summary
Fungal pathogens strongly controlled seedling growth.
- Taxon
- Picea mariana
Picea marianat0 - Interactor
- fungal pathogense0pathogen
- Outcome
- Seedling growthe0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens”
t0“Picea mariana”