Paper · 1996 · Climate Research

Comparison of wheat simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses

J Wolf; LG Evans; MA Semenov; et al.

5
claims
10
verbatim quotes
153
citations
3
research areas
✓
Open access

Abstract

A comparison of the performance of 5 wheat models was carried out for 2 sites in Europe with considerably different agroclimatic conditions: Rothamsted, UK, and Seville, Spain. The models were calibrated against field data sets from both sites. For Rothamsted the measured time courses of crop growth, evapo-transpiration and nitrogen uptake were reproduced reasonably well by the different models, except for leaf area index. For Seville, the experimental data set was insufficient for such a detailed comparison and mainly simulated results were compared. The sensitivity of the model results to stepwise changes In individual weather variables was then determined. In the different model runs a temperature rise generally resulted in lower yields, an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in higher ylelds, and increased variability of weather variables often resulted in lower yields with increased yleld varlab~lity.

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Claims 5

Method / resourceobservedoriginal resultmixedmeasured

Claim · model-written summary

At Rothamsted the five wheat models reproduced measured time courses of crop growth, evapo-transpiration and nitrogen uptake reasonably well, except for leaf area index.

Outcome
crop growth, evapo-transpiration and nitrogen uptakee0
Comparator
measured time coursese0
Setting
Rothamstede0

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat simulation models”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 14–37 · show in text ↑
e0

“For Rothamsted the measured time courses of crop growth, evapo-transpiration and nitrogen uptake were reproduced reasonably well by the different models, except for leaf area index”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 245–425 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

In the model runs a temperature rise generally resulted in lower wheat yields.

Treatment
temperature risee0
Outcome
yieldse0
Direction
lowere0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat simulation models”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 14–37 · show in text ↑
e0

“a temperature rise generally resulted in lower yields”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 696–749 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

In the model runs an increase in precipitation resulted in higher wheat yields.

Treatment
increase in precipitatione0
Outcome
yleldse0
Direction
highere0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat simulation models”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 14–37 · show in text ↑
e0

“an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in higher ylelds”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 751–839 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositivesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

In the model runs an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in higher wheat yields.

Treatment
atmospheric CO2 concentratione0
Outcome
yleldse0
Direction
highere0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat simulation models”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 14–37 · show in text ↑
e0

“an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in higher ylelds”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 751–839 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativesimulated

Claim · model-written summary

In the model runs increased variability of weather variables often resulted in lower wheat yields with increased yield variability.

Treatment
increased variability of weather variablese0
Outcome
yieldse0
Direction
lowere0
Qualifier
increased yleld varlab~litye0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

t0

“wheat simulation models”

✓ located verbatim in the source · title, characters 14–37 · show in text ↑
e0

“increased variability of weather variables often resulted in lower yields with increased yleld varlab~lity”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 845–951 · show in text ↑

climate site · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results

154 papers: 72 positive, 82 negative or no effect

81 papers in the same direction as this paper · 72 in the opposite direction

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  2. negative
  3. positive

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Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.