Paper · 2005 · Journal of Crop Improvement

The Potential Effect of Climate Change and Elevated Air Carbon Dioxide on Agricultural Crop Production in Central and Southeastern Europe

Vesselin A. Alexandrov; Josef Eitzinger

7
claims
10
verbatim quotes
18
citations
2
research areas
—
Not open access

Abstract

SUMMARY The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to different soils in Austria and Bulgaria under a changing climate and elevated air CO2 were investigated. Several incremental and transient GCM climate change scenarios were created and applied. Warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops in the regions of interest. All GCM scenarios, including the climate change effect only, projected reductions in grain yield of winter wheat and spring barley, caused by a shorter crop-growing period. However, when the direct effect of an increased CO2 level was assumed, most GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in wheat and barley yield and especially in soybean yield. An increased level of CO2 alone had no significant impact on the simulated maize yield reductions under climate change.

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The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.

Claims 7

Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativeprojected

Claim · model-written summary

Warming was projected to shorten selected crops’ growing duration.

Taxon
major agricultural cropse1
Treatment
Warminge0
Outcome
crop-growing duratione0
Direction
decreasee0
Setting
Austria and Bulgariae1

Not reportedComparator

Verbatim

e0

“Warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops in the regions of interest”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 266–362 · show in text ↑
e1

“major agricultural crops to different soils in Austria and Bulgaria”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 44–111 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativeprojected

Claim · model-written summary

Climate change alone projected reduced winter wheat grain yield.

Taxon
winter wheatTriticum aestivume0
Treatment
climate change effect onlye0
Outcome
grain yielde0
Direction
reductionse0
Setting
Austria and Bulgariae1

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“All GCM scenarios, including the climate change effect only, projected reductions in grain yield of winter wheat and spring barley”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 364–494 · show in text ↑
e1

“Austria and Bulgaria”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 91–111 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultnegativeprojected

Claim · model-written summary

Climate change alone projected reduced spring barley grain yield.

Taxon
spring barleyHordeum vulgaree0
Treatment
climate change effect onlye0
Outcome
grain yielde0
Direction
reductionse0
Setting
Austria and Bulgariae1

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Hordeum vulgare
Hordeum vulgare · TaxonJackyM59 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“All GCM scenarios, including the climate change effect only, projected reductions in grain yield of winter wheat and spring barley”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 364–494 · show in text ↑
e1

“Austria and Bulgaria”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 91–111 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositiveprojected

Claim · model-written summary

With elevated CO2, most scenarios projected increased wheat yield.

Treatment
increased CO2 levele0
Outcome
wheat and barley yielde0
Direction
increasee0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Triticum aestivum
Triticum aestivum · TaxonRasbak · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“when the direct effect of an increased CO2 level was assumed, most GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in wheat and barley yield and especially in soybean yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 546–721 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositiveprojected

Claim · model-written summary

With elevated CO2, most scenarios projected increased barley yield.

Treatment
increased CO2 levele0
Outcome
wheat and barley yielde0
Direction
increasee0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Hordeum vulgare
Hordeum vulgare · TaxonJackyM59 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“when the direct effect of an increased CO2 level was assumed, most GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in wheat and barley yield and especially in soybean yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 546–721 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultpositiveprojected

Claim · model-written summary

With elevated CO2, most scenarios projected particularly increased soybean yield.

Taxon
soybeanGlycine maxe0
Treatment
increased CO2 levele0
Outcome
soybean yielde0
Direction
increasee0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Glycine max
Glycine max · TaxonPublic domain · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“when the direct effect of an increased CO2 level was assumed, most GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in wheat and barley yield and especially in soybean yield”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 546–721 · show in text ↑
Intervention effectobservedoriginal resultno effectnot significant (as stated)simulated

Claim · model-written summary

Elevated CO2 alone did not significantly alter modeled maize yield reductions under climate change.

Taxon
maizeZea mayse0
Treatment
increased level of CO2 alonee0
Outcome
simulated maize yield reductionse0
Direction
no significant impacte0

Not reportedComparator

Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Zea mays
Zea mays · TaxonAkwugo · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons ↗

Verbatim

e0

“An increased level of CO2 alone had no significant impact on the simulated maize yield reductions under climate change”

✓ located verbatim in the source · abstract, characters 723–841 · show in text ↑

co2 · yield · Zea mays (maize)Results differ

52 papers: 41 positive, 11 negative or no effect

10 papers in the same direction as this paper · 41 in the opposite direction

  1. positive
  2. positive
  3. positive

48 papers more in this group

See all 52 papers →

climate site · yield · Hordeum vulgare (barley)Positive and negative results

20 papers: 10 positive, 10 negative or no effect

9 papers in the same direction as this paper · 10 in the opposite direction

  1. positive
  2. positive
  3. positive

16 papers more in this group

See all 20 papers →

co2 · yield · Hordeum vulgare (barley)Positive and negative results

25 papers: 20 positive, 5 negative or no effect

19 papers in the same direction as this paper · 5 in the opposite direction

  1. no effect
  2. negative
  3. negative

21 papers more in this group

See all 25 papers →

co2 · yield · Glycine max (soybean)Positive and negative results

96 papers: 86 positive, 10 negative or no effect

85 papers in the same direction as this paper · 10 in the opposite direction

  1. no effect
  2. negative
  3. no effect

92 papers more in this group

See all 96 papers →

climate site · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results

154 papers: 72 positive, 82 negative or no effect

81 papers in the same direction as this paper · 72 in the opposite direction

  1. positive
  2. negative
  3. negative

150 papers more in this group

See all 154 papers →

co2 · yield · Triticum aestivum (wheat)Positive and negative results

203 papers: 174 positive, 29 negative or no effect

173 papers in the same direction as this paper · 29 in the opposite direction

  1. positive
  2. no effect
  3. no effect

199 papers more in this group

See all 203 papers →

Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.