Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Environmental temperature regulates plant regeneration via seed in several superimposed ways, and this complex regulation will be disrupted by climate change. The role of diurnally alternating temperatures (ΔT) in terminating dormancy will be a major factor in this disruption, as its effects on seed germination are immediate. METHODS: The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra, one from a montane site and one from a subalpine site. A cardinal-temperature model was fitted to germination results obtained from a thermal gradient plate, and the model was used to simulate changes in germination under two possible future climate scenarios (RCP2·6 and RCP8·5, for representative concentration pathways) as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. KEY RESULTS: Scenario RCP2·6 projected moderate increases in average temperatures and ΔT, whereas RCP8·5 projected greater warming and higher ΔT. Increasing ΔT decreased the base temperature for seed germination and the thermal time required for germination. The effect of higher ΔT together with the higher temperatures increased germination under both climate scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Carex diandra germination is highly responsive to potential changes in ΔT, and thus this study highlights the role of ΔT in seed responses to climate change. Comprehensive cardinal-temperature models, encompassing the different effects of temperature on seed germination, are needed to understand how climate change will affect plant regeneration.
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Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
Under the RCP2.6 scenario, average temperatures and diurnal temperature range (ΔT) were projected to increase moderately.
- Taxon
- Carex diandra
Carex diandrae1 - Treatment
- RCP2·6e2
- Outcome
- average temperatures and ΔTe2
- Direction
- moderate increasese2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“Scenario RCP2·6 projected moderate increases in average temperatures and ΔT”
Claim · model-written summary
Under the RCP8.5 scenario, warming was projected to be greater.
- Taxon
- Carex diandraCarex diandrae1
- Treatment
- RCP8·5e2
- Outcome
- warminge2
- Direction
- greatere2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“RCP8·5 projected greater warming and higher ΔT”
Claim · model-written summary
Under the RCP8.5 scenario, ΔT was projected to be higher.
- Taxon
- Carex diandraCarex diandrae1
- Treatment
- RCP8·5e2
- Outcome
- ΔTe2
- Direction
- highere2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“RCP8·5 projected greater warming and higher ΔT”
Claim · model-written summary
Increasing ΔT decreased the base temperature and the thermal time required for seed germination of Carex diandra.
- Taxon
- Carex diandraCarex diandrae1
- Treatment
- Increasing ΔTe2
- Outcome
- base temperature for seed germination and the thermal time required for germinatione2
- Direction
- decreasede2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“Increasing ΔT decreased the base temperature for seed germination and the thermal time required for germination”
Claim · model-written summary
Higher ΔT together with higher temperatures increased germination of Carex diandra under both climate scenarios.
- Taxon
- Carex diandraCarex diandrae1
- Treatment
- higher ΔT together with the higher temperaturese2
- Outcome
- germinatione2
- Direction
- increasede2
- Qualifier
- under both climate scenariose2
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“The effect of higher ΔT together with the higher temperatures increased germination under both climate scenarios”
Claim · model-written summary
The authors recommend comprehensive cardinal-temperature models that cover the different effects of temperature on germination to understand climate change effects on Carex diandra regeneration.
- Taxon
- Carex diandraCarex diandrae1
- Outcome
- Comprehensive cardinal-temperature modelse2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“The effect of ΔT on seed germination was modelled using two populations of the wetland sedge Carex diandra”
e2“Comprehensive cardinal-temperature models, encompassing the different effects of temperature on seed germination, are needed to understand how climate change will affect plant regeneration”