Abstract
Abstract The impact of climate change on the agricultural systems of three major islands in the Mediterranean basin, namely Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, was evaluated using a suite of specifically calibrated crop models and the outputs of a regional circulation model for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 downscaled to 12 km of resolution and tested for its effectiveness in reproducing the local meteorological data. The most important annual (wheat, barley, tomato and potato) and perennial (grapevine and olive tree) crops were selected to represent the agricultural systems of the islands. The same modelling framework was used to test the effectiveness of autonomous adaptation options, such as shifting sowing date and the use of varieties with different growing season length. The results highlighted that, on average, warmer temperatures advanced both anthesis and maturity of the selected crops, but at different magnitudes depending on the crop and the island. Winter crops (barley, wheat and potato) experienced the lowest impact in terms of yield loss with respect to the baseline, with even some positive effects, especially in Sicily where both wheat and barley showed a general increase of 9% as compared to the baseline, while potato increased up to + 17%. Amongst perennial crops, olive tree showed low variation under RCP 4.5, but on average increased by 7% under RCP 8.5 on the three islands. Climate change had a detrimental effect specifically on tomato (− 2% on average in RCP 8.5 and 4.5 on the three islands) and grapevine (− 7%). The use of different sowing dates, or different varieties, revealed that for winter crops early autumn sowing is still the best option for producing wheat and barley in future periods on the three islands under both future scenarios. For tomato and potato, advancing sowing date to early winter is a winning strategy that may even increase final yield (+ 9% for tomato and + 17% for potato, on average). For grapevine, the use of late varieties, while suffering the most from increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall (− 15%, on average), is still a valuable option to keep high yield levels with respect to earlier varieties, which even if showing some increases with respect to the baseline have a generally much lower production level. The same may be applied to olive tree although the production differences between late and early varieties are less evident and climate change exerts a favourable influence (+ 4 and + 3% for early and late varieties, respectively).
Abstract from the paper’s OpenAlex record; open copy licensed cc-by. Read at the source ↗
The text the model read, with the source record’s inline markup (italics, sub- and superscripts) rendered and its character entities decoded; quote offsets refer to the raw text.
Claims 18
Claim · model-written summary
Warmer temperatures advanced anthesis across the selected crops, with crop and island differences.
- Taxon
- wheat, barley, tomato and potato
Solanum lycopersicum
Solanum tuberosum.jpg?width=60)
Hordeum vulgare
Triticum aestivumt0 - Outcome
- anthesise0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Qualifier
- different magnitudes depending on the crop and the islande0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
.jpg?width=500)
Verbatim
e0“warmer temperatures advanced both anthesis and maturity of the selected crops, but at different magnitudes depending on the crop and the island.”
t0“wheat, barley, tomato and potato”
Claim · model-written summary
Warmer temperatures advanced crop maturity, with crop and island differences.
- Taxon
- wheat, barley, tomato and potatoSolanum lycopersicumSolanum tuberosumHordeum vulgareTriticum aestivumt0
- Outcome
- maturitye0
- Direction
- advancede0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“warmer temperatures advanced both anthesis and maturity of the selected crops, but at different magnitudes depending on the crop and the island.”
t0“wheat, barley, tomato and potato”
Claim · model-written summary
Winter crops had the lowest projected yield-loss impact relative to baseline.
- Taxon
- barley, wheat and potatoSolanum tuberosumHordeum vulgareTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- yield losse0
- Direction
- loweste0
- Comparator
- the baselinee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Winter crops (barley, wheat and potato) experienced the lowest impact in terms of yield loss with respect to the baseline”
Claim · model-written summary
Wheat yield in Sicily generally increased by 9% relative to baseline.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- yieldt0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 9%e0
- Comparator
- the baselinee0
- Setting
- Sicilye0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in Sicily where both wheat and barley showed a general increase of 9% as compared to the baseline”
t0“yield loss”
Claim · model-written summary
Barley yield in Sicily generally increased by 9% relative to baseline.
- Taxon
- barleyHordeum vulgaree0
- Outcome
- yieldt0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- 9%e0
- Comparator
- the baselinee0
- Setting
- Sicilye0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in Sicily where both wheat and barley showed a general increase of 9% as compared to the baseline”
t0“yield loss”
Claim · model-written summary
Potato yield in Sicily increased up to 17%.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“while potato increased up to + 17%”
t0“yield loss”
e1“especially in Sicily”
Claim · model-written summary
Olive tree yield varied little under RCP 4.5.
- Taxon
- olive tree
Olea europaeae0 - Outcome
- low variatione0
- Qualifier
- RCP 4.5e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“olive tree showed low variation under RCP 4.5”
Claim · model-written summary
Olive tree yield increased by 7% on average across the islands under RCP 8.5.
- Taxon
- olive treeOlea europaeae1
- Outcome
- yield losst0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 7%e0
- Qualifier
- RCP 8.5 on the three islandse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“on average increased by 7% under RCP 8.5 on the three islands”
t0“yield loss”
e1“olive tree showed low variation under RCP 4.5”
Claim · model-written summary
Tomato yield declined by 2% on average across the islands under both scenarios.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Outcome
- yield losst0
- Value
- − 2%e0
- Qualifier
- RCP 8.5 and 4.5 on the three islandse0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“tomato (− 2% on average in RCP 8.5 and 4.5 on the three islands)”
t0“yield loss”
Claim · model-written summary
Grapevine yield declined by 7% under climate change.
VitisNot reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“grapevine (− 7%)”
t0“yield loss”
Claim · model-written summary
Early autumn sowing was judged best for future wheat production on all three islands.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume0
- Outcome
- early autumn sowing is still the best optione0
- Qualifier
- in future periods on the three islands under both future scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“early autumn sowing is still the best option for producing wheat and barley in future periods on the three islands under both future scenarios.”
Claim · model-written summary
Early autumn sowing was judged best for future barley production on all three islands.
- Taxon
- barleyHordeum vulgaree0
- Outcome
- early autumn sowing is still the best optione0
- Qualifier
- in future periods on the three islands under both future scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“early autumn sowing is still the best option for producing wheat and barley in future periods on the three islands under both future scenarios.”
Claim · model-written summary
Advancing tomato sowing to early winter may increase final yield by 9% on average.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Treatment
- advancing sowing date to early wintere0
- Outcome
- final yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- + 9%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For tomato and potato, advancing sowing date to early winter is a winning strategy that may even increase final yield (+ 9% for tomato and + 17% for potato, on average).”
Claim · model-written summary
Advancing potato sowing to early winter may increase final yield by 17% on average.
- Taxon
- potatoSolanum tuberosume0
- Treatment
- advancing sowing date to early wintere0
- Outcome
- final yielde0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Value
- + 17%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For tomato and potato, advancing sowing date to early winter is a winning strategy that may even increase final yield (+ 9% for tomato and + 17% for potato, on average).”
Claim · model-written summary
Late grapevine varieties suffered a 15% yield decline on average under increasing temperature and reduced rainfall.
- Material
- late varietiese0
- Outcome
- yield losst0
- Value
- − 15%e0
- Qualifier
- increasing temperatures and reduced rainfalle0
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the use of late varieties, while suffering the most from increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall (− 15%, on average)”
t0“yield loss”
e1“For grapevine, the use of late varieties”
Claim · model-written summary
Early grapevine varieties showed some increases relative to baseline but generally lower production than late varieties.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“earlier varieties, which even if showing some increases with respect to the baseline have a generally much lower production level.”
t0“yield loss”
e1“For grapevine, the use of late varieties”
Claim · model-written summary
Early olive tree varieties gained 4% under climate change.
- Taxon
- olive treeOlea europaeae1
- Material
- earlye0
- Outcome
- yield losst0
- Direction
- favourable influencee0
- Value
- + 4 and + 3%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“climate change exerts a favourable influence (+ 4 and + 3% for early and late varieties, respectively).”
t0“yield loss”
e1“The same may be applied to olive tree”
Claim · model-written summary
Late olive tree varieties gained 3% under climate change.
- Taxon
- olive treeOlea europaeae1
- Material
- latee0
- Outcome
- yield losst0
- Direction
- favourable influencee0
- Value
- + 3%e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“climate change exerts a favourable influence (+ 4 and + 3% for early and late varieties, respectively).”
t0“yield loss”
e1“The same may be applied to olive tree”
The same questions in other papers
sowing time · yield · Solanum lycopersicum (tomato)Positive and negative results
22 papers in the same direction as this paper · 5 in the opposite direction
- negative
- negative
- negative
24 papers more in this group
See all 28 papers →sowing time · yield · Solanum tuberosum (potato)Positive and negative results
29 papers in the same direction as this paper · 13 in the opposite direction · 1 reporting no difference from an alternative
- no effect
- negative
- no effect
40 papers more in this group
See all 44 papers →Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.