Abstract
Maize is a globally significant food crop but its future sustainability under rainfed conditions is at risk due to climate change and increased climate uncertainty. In Pakistan most maize is rainfed but there is increasing interest in the role of supplemental irrigation to reduce the vulnerability of crop yields to future drought and climate risks. Using a crop model (DSSAT CERES-Maize) with downscaled data from a weather generator (LARS-WG) and for five selected GCMs, two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and two time slices (2050s and 2080s), this study assessed the impacts of climate change and climate variability on rainfed maize grown in the Pothwar region of Pakistan, and the extent to which irrigation could offset future yield reductions. Model simulations were calibrated and validated using experimental data from 2021 and 2022. The outputs showed that on average the yield of maize could be increased by 55% with a single irrigation of 60 mm during the reproductive stage. For the baseline (1991–2020) the average rainfed yield was 3370 kg/ha. The climate change scenarios for the 2050s indicated a −13.5% and −5.8% decline in rainfed yield under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm) increased grain yields by 5615 kg/ha and 5732 kg/ha, respectively. For the 2080s scenarios there was a projected decrease in yield by -9.3% and -39.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Modelling also confirmed significant reductions in maize biomass production which would negatively impact on feedstocks for both livestock and renewable energy generation.
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Claims 9
Claim · model-written summary
Modelled maize yield could increase by 55% on average with a single 60 mm irrigation during the reproductive stage.
- Organ / stage
- reproductive stagee0
- Treatment
- a single irrigation of 60 mme0
- Outcome
- yielde0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 55%e0
Zea maysNot reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“on average the yield of maize could be increased by 55% with a single irrigation of 60 mm during the reproductive stage”
Claim · model-written summary
The simulated baseline (1991-2020) average rainfed maize yield was 3370 kg/ha.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For the baseline (1991–2020) the average rainfed yield was 3370 kg/ha”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected rainfed maize yield for the 2050s declined by −13.5% under RCP4.5.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“indicated a −13.5% and −5.8% decline in rainfed yield under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected rainfed maize yield for the 2050s declined by −5.8% under RCP8.5.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“indicated a −13.5% and −5.8% decline in rainfed yield under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Irrigation applications of 162-180 mm increased simulated grain yield by 5615 kg/ha (first/second of the two scenarios given).
- Treatment
- Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm)e0
- Outcome
- grain yieldse0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 5615 kg/hae0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm) increased grain yields by 5615 kg/ha and 5732 kg/ha, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Irrigation applications of 162-180 mm increased simulated grain yield by 5732 kg/ha (first/second of the two scenarios given).
- Treatment
- Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm)e0
- Outcome
- grain yieldse0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- 5732 kg/hae0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm) increased grain yields by 5615 kg/ha and 5732 kg/ha, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected yield for the 2080s decreased by -9.3% under RCP4.5.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For the 2080s scenarios there was a projected decrease in yield by -9.3% and -39.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Projected yield for the 2080s decreased by -39.7% under RCP8.5.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“For the 2080s scenarios there was a projected decrease in yield by -9.3% and -39.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Modelling confirmed significant reductions in maize biomass production.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Modelling also confirmed significant reductions in maize biomass production”
The same questions in other papers
irrigation · yield · Zea mays (maize)Positive and negative results
790 papers in the same direction as this paper · 209 in the opposite direction · 16 reporting no difference from an alternative
- positive
- negative
- no effect
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