Abstract
CONTEXT Improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in maize systems demands a mechanistic understanding of how nitrogen (N) dynamics interact with climate variability, irrigation regimes, and within-field spatial heterogeneity. Yet, N fate pathways such as leaching, volatilization, and denitrification remain difficult to quantify across diverse zones of productivity under real-farm conditions. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to simulate the fate and flow of applied nitrogen across management zones with contrasting yield stability and water-holding capacity, using a process-based model under long-term weather and irrigation scenarios. METHODS The DSSAT CSM-CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated using independent field datasets from two growing seasons across two management zones (MZs) delineated by yield stability. The calibrated model was assessed for LAI, soil moisture, yield, soil N, and N uptake. After model evaluation, simulations were conducted over 40 years (1984–2022) of weather data, categorized into drought, normal, and wet years using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and under three irrigation scenarios: rainfed, 50 %, and 30 % management allowable depletions (MAD). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Upon calibration, DSSAT CSM CERES Maize showed good agreement between observed and simulated values for crop growth, development, and soil water and N dynamics (NRMSE <15 %), supporting the use of the model for management zone-based N accounting. In 2022 high yield management zone (MZ1) exhibited higher N uptake (305 kg N ha −1 ) and greater N losses via leaching (16.1 kg N ha −1 ) and volatilization (33 kg N ha −1 ), while low yield management zone (MZ2) showed elevated residual nitrate at harvest (60 kg N ha −1 ) and higher denitrification (6.2 kg N ha −1 ), indicating lower NUE. The long-term simulations indicated that leaching peaked under wet years (up to 33.8 kg N ha −1 ), whereas drought years induced maximum volatilization (65.5 kg ha −1 ). MZ2 required 45 % more irrigation to match MZ1 yields, reflecting soil-based water limitations. Moderate MAD irrigation regimes (50 %) reduced total N losses without yield penalties. SIGNIFICANCE This study demonstrates that integrating spatial field variability with long-term climate and irrigation scenarios is critical for diagnosing N inefficiencies and optimizing N use. Mechanistic modeling provides a scalable decision-support tool to design adaptive nutrients and water management strategies tailored to heterogeneous production systems.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
The calibrated maize model agreed with observed crop and soil measurements with NRMSE below 15%.
- Outcome
- good agreement between observed and simulated values for crop growth, development, and soil water and N dynamicse0
- Value
- NRMSE <15 %e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“DSSAT CSM CERES Maize showed good agreement between observed and simulated values for crop growth, development, and soil water and N dynamics (NRMSE <15 %)”
Claim · model-written summary
The high yield zone had higher nitrogen uptake of 305 kg N ha −1.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“high yield management zone (MZ1) exhibited higher N uptake (305 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The high yield zone had greater leaching losses of 16.1 kg N ha −1.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“greater N losses via leaching (16.1 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The high yield zone had greater volatilization losses of 33 kg N ha −1.
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“volatilization (33 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The low yield zone had elevated residual nitrate at harvest of 60 kg N ha −1.
- Outcome
- residual nitrate at harveste0
- Direction
- elevatede0
- Value
- 60 kg N ha −1e0
- Setting
- low yield management zone (MZ2)e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“low yield management zone (MZ2) showed elevated residual nitrate at harvest (60 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The low yield zone had higher denitrification of 6.2 kg N ha −1.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“higher denitrification (6.2 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Leaching peaked in wet years at up to 33.8 kg N ha −1.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“leaching peaked under wet years (up to 33.8 kg N ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Volatilization reached a maximum of 65.5 kg ha −1 in drought years.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“drought years induced maximum volatilization (65.5 kg ha −1 )”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
The low yield zone needed 45% more irrigation to match high zone yields.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“MZ2 required 45 % more irrigation to match MZ1 yields”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
A 50% management allowable depletion irrigation regime reduced nitrogen losses without yield penalty.
- Treatment
- Moderate MAD irrigation regimes (50 %)e0
- Outcome
- total N lossese0
- Direction
- reducede0
- Qualifier
- without yield penaltiese0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Moderate MAD irrigation regimes (50 %) reduced total N losses without yield penalties.”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
A 50% management allowable depletion irrigation regime caused no yield penalty.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.

Verbatim
e0“Moderate MAD irrigation regimes (50 %) reduced total N losses without yield penalties.”
t0“maize”
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