Abstract
Abstract Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea‐level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh‐dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES‐Hydro, we conducted 30‐year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity‐ and submersion‐driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non‐water‐limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. Our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community‐level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.
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Claims 5
Claim · model-written summary
Elevated CO2 (+100 ppm) increased net primary productivity of coastal forests relative to historical climate in simulations.
Verbatim
e2“Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change”
e0“under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios”
e1“Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites”
Claim · model-written summary
Warming alone intensified hydraulic stress in coastal forests in simulations.
Not reportedComparator
Verbatim
e2“Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change”
e3“warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand”
Claim · model-written summary
Warming alone accelerated tree mortality, particularly in the loblolly pine stand.
- Taxon
- loblolly pine
Pinus taedae5 - Treatment
- warming alonee3
- Outcome
- mortalitye3
- Direction
- acceleratede3
- Qualifier
- particularly in the conifer stande3
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay”
e3“warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand”
Claim · model-written summary
Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie.
- Taxon
- swamp white oak
Quercus bicolore6 - Treatment
- Marsh expansione4
- Outcome
- tree losse4
- Direction
- partially compensatede4
- Setting
- Lake Erie sitee4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e6“a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie”
e4“Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay”
Claim · model-written summary
Marsh expansion reduced ecosystem productivity in the loblolly pine forest at Chesapeake Bay.
- Taxon
- loblolly pinePinus taedae5
- Treatment
- Marsh expansione4
- Outcome
- ecosystem productivitye4
- Direction
- reducede4
- Setting
- Chesapeake Baye4
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay”
e4“Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay”