Abstract
We projected US agricultural production in 2030 and 2090 at 45 representative sites, using 2 scenarios of climate change, developed with the Hadley Centre Model and the Canadian Centre Climate Model, and the DSSAT (Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer) dynamic crop-growth models. These simulation results have previously been aggregated nationally with the aid of economic models to show an increase in overall US agricultural output under climate change. In this work, we analyzed the regional distribution of the simulated yields, showing that positive results largely depend on the precipitation increases projected by the climate scenarios. In contrast, in some important rainfed production areas where precipitation was projected to decrease, such as the Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regions under the Canadian Centre Climate Model scenario, climate change resulted in significant reductions of grain yield (-30 to -40%), accompanied by increased year-to-year variability. We also discussed the response to additional factors affecting the simulated US crop production under climate change, such as higher temperature and elevated CO 2 .
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Claims 4
Claim · model-written summary
Earlier aggregated simulations showed an increase in overall US agricultural output under climate change.
- Taxon
- Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus
Citrus
Solanum tuberosum
Triticum aestivum
Zea mayst0 - Outcome
- overall US agricultural outpute0
- Direction
- increasee0
- Setting
- USe0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“These simulation results have previously been aggregated nationally with the aid of economic models to show an increase in overall US agricultural output under climate change”
t0“Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus”
Claim · model-written summary
Positive simulated yields largely depended on projected precipitation increases.
- Taxon
- Wheat, potato, maize, and citrusCitrusSolanum tuberosumTriticum aestivumZea mayst0
- Outcome
- simulated yieldse1
- Qualifier
- precipitation increases projected by the climate scenariose0
- Setting
- regionale1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“positive results largely depend on the precipitation increases projected by the climate scenarios”
e1“regional distribution of the simulated yields”
t0“Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus”
Claim · model-written summary
Under the Canadian model scenario, climate change reduced grain yield by 30 to 40% in Kansas and Oklahoma rainfed areas with less precipitation.
- Taxon
- Wheat, potato, maize, and citrusCitrusSolanum tuberosumTriticum aestivumZea mayst0
- Treatment
- climate changee0
- Outcome
- grain yielde0
- Direction
- reductionse0
- Value
- -30 to -40%e0
- Setting
- Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regionse0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“in some important rainfed production areas where precipitation was projected to decrease, such as the Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regions under the Canadian Centre Climate Model scenario, climate change resulted in significant reductions of grain yield (-30 to -40%)”
t0“Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus”
Claim · model-written summary
In those rainfed areas, climate change increased year-to-year grain-yield variability.
- Taxon
- Wheat, potato, maize, and citrusCitrusSolanum tuberosumTriticum aestivumZea mayst0
- Treatment
- climate changee0
- Outcome
- year-to-year variabilitye0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Setting
- Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regionse1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“climate change resulted in significant reductions of grain yield (-30 to -40%), accompanied by increased year-to-year variability”
e1“Kansas and Oklahoma Bread Basket regions”
t0“Wheat, potato, maize, and citrus”
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See all 180 papers →climate site · yield · CitrusResults agree
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- no effect
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Claims are grouped by organism, treatment and what was measured or targeted. A paper counts as positive when any of its claims in the group is positive.