Abstract
Adaptation measures are essential for reducing the impact of future climate risks on agricultural production systems. The present study focuses on implementing an adaptation strategy to mitigate the impact of future climate change on rainfed maize production in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB), an important rainfed maize-producing region in the US Great Plains, which faces potential challenges of future climate risks due to a significant east-to-west aridity gradient. We used a calibrated CERES-Maize crop model to evaluate the impacts of baseline climate conditions (1985–2014), late-term future climate scenarios (under the SSP245 emission pathway and CMIP6 models), and a novel root proliferation adaptation strategy on regional maize yield and rainfall productivity. Changes in the plant root system by increasing the root density could lead to yield benefits, especially under drought conditions. Therefore, we modified the governing equation of soil root growth in the CERES-Maize model to reflect the genetic influence of a maize cultivar to improve root density by proliferation. Under baseline conditions, maize yield values ranged from 6522 to 12,849 kgha−1, with a regional average value of 9270 kgha−1. Projections for the late-term scenario indicate a substantial decline in maize yield (36 % to 50 %) and rainfall productivity (25 % to 42 %). Introducing a hypothetical maize cultivar by employing root proliferation as an adaptation strategy resulted in a 27 % increase in regional maize yield, and a 28 % increase in rainfall productivity compared to the reference cultivar without adaptation. We observed an indication of spatial dependency of maize yield and rainfall productivity on the regional precipitation gradient, with counties towards the east having an implicit advantage over those in the west. These findings offer valuable insights for the US Great Plains maize growers and breeders, guiding strategic decisions to adapt rainfed maize production to the region's impending challenges posed by climate change.
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Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
Late-term climate scenarios are projected to reduce maize yield by 36% to 50% relative to the baseline.
- Treatment
- late-term future climate scenariose2
- Outcome
- maize yielde1
- Direction
- declinee1
- Value
- 36 % to 50 %e1
- Comparator
- baseline climate conditions (1985–2014)e3
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Projections for the late-term scenario indicate a substantial decline in maize yield (36 % to 50 %) and rainfall productivity (25 % to 42 %)”
e2“late-term future climate scenarios (under the SSP245 emission pathway and CMIP6 models)”
e3“baseline climate conditions (1985–2014)”
Claim · model-written summary
Late-term climate scenarios are projected to reduce rainfall productivity by 25% to 42% relative to the baseline.
- Treatment
- late-term future climate scenariose2
- Outcome
- rainfall productivitye1
- Direction
- declinee1
- Value
- 25 % to 42 %e1
- Comparator
- baseline climate conditions (1985–2014)e3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Projections for the late-term scenario indicate a substantial decline in maize yield (36 % to 50 %) and rainfall productivity (25 % to 42 %)”
e2“late-term future climate scenarios (under the SSP245 emission pathway and CMIP6 models)”
e3“baseline climate conditions (1985–2014)”
Claim · model-written summary
The root proliferation adaptation raised regional maize yield by 27% relative to the reference cultivar without adaptation.
- Treatment
- root proliferatione7
- Outcome
- regional maize yielde5
- Direction
- increasee5
- Value
- 27 %e5
- Comparator
- reference cultivar without adaptatione6
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e7“Introducing a hypothetical maize cultivar by employing root proliferation as an adaptation strategy”
e5“resulted in a 27 % increase in regional maize yield”
e6“a 28 % increase in rainfall productivity compared to the reference cultivar without adaptation”
Claim · model-written summary
The root proliferation adaptation raised rainfall productivity by 28% relative to the reference cultivar without adaptation.
- Treatment
- root proliferatione7
- Outcome
- rainfall productivitye6
- Direction
- increasee6
- Value
- 28 %e6
- Comparator
- reference cultivar without adaptatione6
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e7“Introducing a hypothetical maize cultivar by employing root proliferation as an adaptation strategy”
e6“a 28 % increase in rainfall productivity compared to the reference cultivar without adaptation”
Claim · model-written summary
Maize yield and rainfall productivity show an indication of spatial dependence on the precipitation gradient, with eastern counties having an implicit advantage.
- Outcome
- maize yield and rainfall productivitye6
- Qualifier
- regional precipitation gradiente6
- Setting
- counties towards the easte6
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e6“We observed an indication of spatial dependency of maize yield and rainfall productivity on the regional precipitation gradient, with counties towards the east having an implicit advantage over those in the west”
Claim · model-written summary
Under baseline conditions, regional average maize yield was 9270 kg/ha.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“Under baseline conditions, maize yield values ranged from 6522 to 12,849 kgha−1, with a regional average value of 9270 kgha−1”
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