Abstract
Climate change and population growth pose great challenges to the food security of the millions of people who grow maize in the already fragile agricultural systems in tropical environments. There is an urgent need for maize varieties that are both drought and heat tolerant given the already prevailing drought and heat stress levels in many tropical environments, which are set to exacerbate with climate change. In this study, the crop growth simulation model for maize (CERES-Maize) was used to quantify the impact of climate change on maize and the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance into the commonly grown (benchmark) maize varieties at six sites in Eastern and Southern Africa and one site in South Asia. Simulation results indicate that climate change will have a negative impact on maize yield at all the sites studied but the degree of the impact varies with location, level of warming and rainfall changes. Combined hotter and drier climate change scenarios (involving increases in warming with a reduction in rainfall) resulted in greater average simulated maize yield reduction (21, 33 and 50% under 1, 2 and 4 °C warming, respectively) than hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively). Incorporating drought, heat and combined drought & heat tolerance into benchmark varieties increased simulated maize yield under both the baseline and future climates. The average simulated benefit from combined drought & heat tolerance was at least twice that of heat or drought tolerance and it increased with the increase in warming levels. The magnitude of the simulated benefits from drought tolerance, heat tolerance and combined drought & heat tolerance and potential acceptability of the varieties by farmers varied across sites and climate scenarios indicating the need for proper targeting of varieties where they fit best and benefit most. It is concluded that incorporating drought and heat tolerance into maize germplasm has the potential to offset predicted yield losses and sustain maize productivity under climate change in vulnerable sites. Keywords: Climate change, Maize, Drought tolerance, Heat tolerance, Tropical environments
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Claims 10
Claim · model-written summary
Climate change reduced simulated maize yield at all sites, with impacts varying by location, warming and rainfall.
Zea maysOrganisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Simulation results indicate that climate change will have a negative impact on maize yield at all the sites studied but the degree of the impact varies with location, level of warming and rainfall changes.”
Claim · model-written summary
Hotter and drier scenarios reduced average simulated maize yield by 21% at 1 °C warming.
- Treatment
- Combined hotter and drier climate change scenariose0
- Outcome
- average simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- reductione0
- Value
- 21e0
- Qualifier
- 1, 2 and 4 °C warminge0
- Comparator
- hotter only climate change scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Combined hotter and drier climate change scenarios (involving increases in warming with a reduction in rainfall) resulted in greater average simulated maize yield reduction (21, 33 and 50% under 1, 2 and 4 °C warming, respectively) than hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively).”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Hotter and drier scenarios reduced average simulated maize yield by 33% at 2 °C warming.
- Treatment
- Combined hotter and drier climate change scenariose0
- Outcome
- average simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- reductione0
- Value
- 33e0
- Qualifier
- 2 and 4 °C warminge0
- Comparator
- hotter only climate change scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Combined hotter and drier climate change scenarios (involving increases in warming with a reduction in rainfall) resulted in greater average simulated maize yield reduction (21, 33 and 50% under 1, 2 and 4 °C warming, respectively) than hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively).”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Hotter and drier scenarios reduced average simulated maize yield by 50% at 4 °C warming.
- Treatment
- Combined hotter and drier climate change scenariose0
- Outcome
- average simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- reductione0
- Value
- 50%e0
- Qualifier
- 4 °C warminge0
- Comparator
- hotter only climate change scenariose0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Combined hotter and drier climate change scenarios (involving increases in warming with a reduction in rainfall) resulted in greater average simulated maize yield reduction (21, 33 and 50% under 1, 2 and 4 °C warming, respectively) than hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively).”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Hotter only scenarios reduced average simulated maize yield by 11%, 21%, and 41% at 1, 2, and 4 °C warming respectively.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“hotter only climate change scenarios (11, 21 and 41%, respectively)”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Drought tolerance increased simulated yield under baseline and future climates.
- Treatment
- droughte0
- Outcome
- simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Qualifier
- both the baseline and future climatese0
- Comparator
- benchmark varietiese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Incorporating drought, heat and combined drought & heat tolerance into benchmark varieties increased simulated maize yield under both the baseline and future climates.”
Claim · model-written summary
Heat tolerance increased simulated yield under baseline and future climates.
- Treatment
- heate0
- Outcome
- simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Qualifier
- both the baseline and future climatese0
- Comparator
- benchmark varietiese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Incorporating drought, heat and combined drought & heat tolerance into benchmark varieties increased simulated maize yield under both the baseline and future climates.”
Claim · model-written summary
Combined drought and heat tolerance increased simulated yield under baseline and future climates.
- Treatment
- combined drought & heat tolerancee0
- Outcome
- simulated maize yielde0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Qualifier
- both the baseline and future climatese0
- Comparator
- benchmark varietiese0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Incorporating drought, heat and combined drought & heat tolerance into benchmark varieties increased simulated maize yield under both the baseline and future climates.”
Claim · model-written summary
Combined tolerance produced at least twice the average simulated benefit of either single tolerance, rising with warming.
- Outcome
- average simulated benefite0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- at least twicee0
- Comparator
- heat or drought tolerancee0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The average simulated benefit from combined drought & heat tolerance was at least twice that of heat or drought tolerance and it increased with the increase in warming levels.”
t0“maize”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulated tolerance benefits and potential farmer acceptability varied by site and climate scenario.
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“The magnitude of the simulated benefits from drought tolerance, heat tolerance and combined drought & heat tolerance and potential acceptability of the varieties by farmers varied across sites and climate scenarios”
t0“maize”
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