Abstract
The daily outputs of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model driven by four general circulation models (GCMs) were used by a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, to construct local climate change scenarios at nine key cotton production areas in eastern Australia. These climate change scenarios were then linked to daily temperaturedriven models of cotton phenology (the CSIRO Cotton Day Degree calculator and the Last Effective Flower tools) to examine the magnitude of the effects of increased temperature on the initiation and duration of key crop phenophases and on the occurrence of heat stress (hot days 35C maximum) and cold shocks ( 11C minimum) during the growing season. The results show that when using 1 Oct. sowing (1) the timing of emergence, 1st square (flower bud), 1st flower and 1st open boll advanced 1~9, 4~13, 5~14, 8~16 days respectively for the period centred on 2030 compared to the period centred on 1990; (2) when crops were planted 10 days earlier, emergence advanced more in most of the locations while other phenological events changed only slightly (approximately 1 day) in comparison with 1st. Oct. sowing; when crops were planted 10 days later all these events generally were delayed (approximately 1.5 days) in comparison with 1st Oct. sowing depending on locations; (3) the timing of the last effective square, last effective flower and last harvestable boll were delayed 7~12, 6~9 and 3~9 days respectively across locations and GCMs; and (4) combining the effects of an earlier time of first square and a later last effective square potentially increased the time for new fruit (squares) to be produced by up to two to three weeks. This analysis highlights the challenges associated with temperature with future climate change for future cotton production in Australia. Future research will be directed to assess the combined effects of changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric CO 2 concentration on cotton water use, water use efficiency, cotton lint yield, fibre quality (i.e. micronaire and fibre length); evaluate the effectiveness of a range of plant-based and management-based adaptation options in dealing with climate change risks; and quantify the cost and benefits of identified effective adaptation options, especially with the use of high yielding transgenic cotton with early high fruit loads in Australian high yielding (>2000kg lint /ha) irrigated systems.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
Emergence advanced 1~9 days in 2030 versus 1990 with 1 Oct. sowing.
- Taxon
- cotton
Gossypium hirsutumt0 - Treatment
- period centred on 2030e0
- Outcome
- timing of emergencee0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Value
- 1~9e0
- Comparator
- period centred on 1990e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of emergence, 1st square (flower bud), 1st flower and 1st open boll advanced 1~9, 4~13, 5~14, 8~16 days respectively for the period centred on 2030 compared to the period centred on 1990”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
First square advanced 4~13 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- period centred on 2030e0
- Outcome
- 1st square (flower bud)e0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Value
- 4~13e0
- Comparator
- period centred on 1990e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of emergence, 1st square (flower bud), 1st flower and 1st open boll advanced 1~9, 4~13, 5~14, 8~16 days respectively for the period centred on 2030 compared to the period centred on 1990”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
First flower advanced 5~14 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- period centred on 2030e0
- Outcome
- 1st flowere0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Value
- 5~14e0
- Comparator
- period centred on 1990e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of emergence, 1st square (flower bud), 1st flower and 1st open boll advanced 1~9, 4~13, 5~14, 8~16 days respectively for the period centred on 2030 compared to the period centred on 1990”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
First open boll advanced 8~16 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- period centred on 2030e0
- Outcome
- 1st open bolle0
- Direction
- advancede0
- Value
- 8~16 dayse0
- Comparator
- period centred on 1990e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of emergence, 1st square (flower bud), 1st flower and 1st open boll advanced 1~9, 4~13, 5~14, 8~16 days respectively for the period centred on 2030 compared to the period centred on 1990”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Planting 10 days earlier advanced emergence more at most locations.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- planted 10 days earliere0
- Outcome
- emergencee0
- Direction
- advanced moree0
- Qualifier
- most of the locationse0
- Comparator
- 1st. Oct. sowinge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“when crops were planted 10 days earlier, emergence advanced more in most of the locations while other phenological events changed only slightly (approximately 1 day) in comparison with 1st. Oct. sowing”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Earlier planting changed other phenological events by approximately 1 day.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- planted 10 days earliere0
- Outcome
- other phenological eventse0
- Direction
- changed only slightlye0
- Value
- approximately 1 daye0
- Comparator
- 1st. Oct. sowinge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“when crops were planted 10 days earlier, emergence advanced more in most of the locations while other phenological events changed only slightly (approximately 1 day) in comparison with 1st. Oct. sowing”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Planting 10 days later delayed phenological events by approximately 1.5 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Treatment
- planted 10 days latere0
- Outcome
- all these eventse0
- Direction
- delayede0
- Value
- approximately 1.5 dayse0
- Comparator
- 1st Oct. sowinge0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“when crops were planted 10 days later all these events generally were delayed (approximately 1.5 days) in comparison with 1st Oct. sowing depending on locations”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Last effective square was delayed 7~12 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- timing of the last effective squaree0
- Direction
- delayede0
- Value
- 7~12e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of the last effective square, last effective flower and last harvestable boll were delayed 7~12, 6~9 and 3~9 days respectively across locations and GCMs”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Last effective flower was delayed 6~9 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- last effective flowere0
- Direction
- delayede0
- Value
- 6~9e0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of the last effective square, last effective flower and last harvestable boll were delayed 7~12, 6~9 and 3~9 days respectively across locations and GCMs”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
Last harvestable boll was delayed 3~9 days.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- last harvestable bolle0
- Direction
- delayede0
- Value
- 3~9 dayse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“the timing of the last effective square, last effective flower and last harvestable boll were delayed 7~12, 6~9 and 3~9 days respectively across locations and GCMs”
t0“cotton”
Claim · model-written summary
The interval for producing new squares potentially increased by up to two to three weeks.
- Taxon
- cottonGossypium hirsutumt0
- Outcome
- time for new fruit (squares) to be producede0
- Direction
- increasede0
- Value
- two to three weekse0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“potentially increased the time for new fruit (squares) to be produced by up to two to three weeks”
t0“cotton”