Abstract
The main cultivation area of the Italian processing tomato is the Southern Capitanata plain. Here, the hardest agronomic challenge is the optimization of the irrigation water use, which is often inefficiently performed by farmers, who tend to over-irrigate. This could become unsustainable in the next years, given the negative impacts of climatic changes on groundwater availability and heat stress intensification. The aim of the study was to identify the most promising agronomic strategies to optimize tomato yield and water use in Capitanata, through a modeling study relying on an extensive dataset for model calibration and evaluation (22 data sets in 2005–2018). The TOMGRO simulation model was adapted to open-field growing conditions and was coupled with a soil model to reproduce the impact of water stress on yield and fruit quality. The new model, TomGro_field, was applied on the tomato cultivation area in Capitanata at 5 × 5 km spatial resolution using an ensemble of future climatic scenarios, resulting from the combination of four General Circulation Models, two extreme Representative Concentration Pathways and five 10-years time frames (2030–2070). Our results showed an overall negative impact of climate change on tomato yields (average decrease = 5–10%), which could be reversed by i) the implementation of deficit irrigation strategies based on the restitution of 60–70% of the crop evapotranspiration, ii) the adoption of varieties with longer cycle and iii) the anticipation of 1–2 weeks in transplanting dates. The corresponding irrigation amounts applied are around 360 mm, thus reinforcing that a rational water management could be realized. Our study provides agronomic indications to tomato growers and lays the basis for a bio-economic analysis to support policy makers in charge of promoting the sustainability of the tomato growing systems.
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Claims 6
Claim · model-written summary
The TOMGRO model was adapted to open-field conditions and coupled with a soil model into TomGro_field to reproduce water-stress effects on tomato yield and fruit quality, using 22 calibration and evaluation data sets.
- Taxon
- tomato
Solanum lycopersicumt0 - Outcome
- reproduce the impact of water stress on yield and fruit qualitye0
- Value
- 22 data sets in 2005–2018e1
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“tomato”
e0“coupled with a soil model to reproduce the impact of water stress on yield and fruit quality”
e1“22 data sets in 2005–2018”
Claim · model-written summary
Simulations projected an overall negative impact of climate change on tomato yields, with an average decrease of 5-10%.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Treatment
- climate changee0
- Outcome
- yieldse0
- Direction
- decreasee0
- Value
- 5–10%e0
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“Our results showed an overall negative impact of climate change on tomato yields (average decrease = 5–10%)”
Claim · model-written summary
Implementing deficit irrigation based on restitution of 60-70% of crop evapotranspiration could reverse the simulated negative impact of climate change on tomato yields.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Treatment
- the implementation of deficit irrigation strategies based on the restitution of 60–70% of the crop evapotranspiratione2
- Outcome
- negative impact of climate change on tomato yieldse0
- Direction
- reversede1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“negative impact of climate change on tomato yields”
e1“which could be reversed by”
e2“the implementation of deficit irrigation strategies based on the restitution of 60–70% of the crop evapotranspiration”
Claim · model-written summary
Adopting varieties with a longer cycle could reverse the simulated negative impact of climate change on tomato yields.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Treatment
- the adoption of varieties with longer cyclee2
- Outcome
- negative impact of climate change on tomato yieldse0
- Direction
- reversede1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“negative impact of climate change on tomato yields”
e1“which could be reversed by”
e2“the adoption of varieties with longer cycle”
Claim · model-written summary
Anticipating transplanting by 1-2 weeks could reverse the simulated negative impact of climate change on tomato yields.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicume0
- Treatment
- the anticipation of 1–2 weeks in transplanting datese2
- Outcome
- negative impact of climate change on tomato yieldse0
- Direction
- reversede1
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e0“negative impact of climate change on tomato yields”
e1“which could be reversed by”
e2“the anticipation of 1–2 weeks in transplanting dates”
Claim · model-written summary
The irrigation amounts applied under the recommended strategies are around 360 mm.
- Taxon
- tomatoSolanum lycopersicumt0
- Outcome
- irrigation amounts appliede0
- Value
- 360 mme0
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
t0“tomato”
e0“The corresponding irrigation amounts applied are around 360 mm”
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