Abstract
Abstract The effects of global warming on crop production have received great attention in recent years. However, inconsistent results have been obtained with regard to major crops such as rice and wheat in rice–wheat rotation systems of China. Therefore, we undertook a comprehensive meta‐analysis of literature data. The yield response to warming differed for rice and wheat in the rice–wheat rotation system. Overall, warming significantly increased wheat yield (by 4.8%) but significantly reduced rice yield (by 14.8%). A number of factors were responsible for these observations. For example, rice yield responses varied with the temperature increase, variety and nitrogen (N) rate. Of these, N was the most important variable influencing yield responses to warming. The yield loss for rice was lower at temperature increases of 0.40–1.40°C and at a high N rate than that at temperature increases of 1.60–2.49°C and at a low N rate, respectively. The yield loss of indica rice was lower than that of japonica rice. For wheat, however, yield responses to warming varied with the warming regime, ambient temperature, temperature increases, and CO 2 concentrations. Of these factors, ambient temperature was the most important variable influencing yield in response to warming. Warming increased wheat yield at a mean growth season temperature ≤10°C, temperature increases of 0.80–1.50°C, and at ambient CO 2 concentrations. In addition, either daytime warming or nighttime warming significantly increased wheat yield. However, all‐day warming had no effect on wheat yields. We conclude that global warming will benefit wheat production but result in a serious loss of rice yield in rice–wheat rotations in China.
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Claims 11
Claim · model-written summary
Warming significantly increased wheat yield by 4.8%.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Overall, warming significantly increased wheat yield (by 4.8%) but significantly reduced rice yield (by 14.8%)”
Claim · model-written summary
Warming significantly reduced rice yield by 14.8%.
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“Overall, warming significantly increased wheat yield (by 4.8%) but significantly reduced rice yield (by 14.8%)”
Claim · model-written summary
Rice yield loss under warming was lower at 0.40–1.40°C with a high N rate than at 1.60–2.49°C with a low N rate.
- Taxon
- rice
Oryza sativae2 - Treatment
- a high N ratee2
- Outcome
- yield loss for ricee2
- Direction
- lowere2
- Comparator
- a low N ratee2
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e2“The yield loss for rice was lower at temperature increases of 0.40–1.40°C and at a high N rate than that at temperature increases of 1.60–2.49°C and at a low N rate, respectively”
Claim · model-written summary
The yield loss of indica rice under warming was lower than that of japonica rice.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae3
- Material
- indica ricee3
- Outcome
- yield losse3
- Direction
- lowere3
- Comparator
- japonica ricee3
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e3“The yield loss of indica rice was lower than that of japonica rice”
Claim · model-written summary
Warming increased wheat yield at a mean growth season temperature of 10 °C or below.
- Taxon
- wheat
Triticum aestivume4 - Treatment
- Warminge4
- Outcome
- wheat yielde4
- Direction
- increasede4
- Qualifier
- at a mean growth season temperature ≤10°Ce4
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e4“Warming increased wheat yield at a mean growth season temperature ≤10°C”
Claim · model-written summary
Daytime or nighttime warming significantly increased wheat yield.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume5
- Treatment
- daytime warming or nighttime warminge5
- Outcome
- wheat yielde5
- Direction
- increasede5
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e5“either daytime warming or nighttime warming significantly increased wheat yield”
Claim · model-written summary
All-day warming had no effect on wheat yields.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume6
- Treatment
- all‐day warminge6
- Outcome
- wheat yieldse6
- Direction
- no effecte6
Not reportedComparator
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e6“all‐day warming had no effect on wheat yields”
Claim · model-written summary
Global warming will benefit wheat production in China.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume7
- Treatment
- global warminge7
- Outcome
- wheat productione7
- Direction
- benefite7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e7“We conclude that global warming will benefit wheat production but result in a serious loss of rice yield”
Claim · model-written summary
Global warming will result in a serious loss of rice yield in China.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae7
- Treatment
- global warminge7
- Outcome
- rice yielde7
- Direction
- losse7
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e7“We conclude that global warming will benefit wheat production but result in a serious loss of rice yield”
Claim · model-written summary
Nitrogen rate was the most important variable influencing rice yield responses to warming.
- Taxon
- riceOryza sativae1
- Treatment
- nitrogen (N) ratee1
- Outcome
- yield responses to warminge1
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“rice yield responses varied with the temperature increase, variety and nitrogen (N) rate. Of these, N was the most important variable influencing yield responses to warming”
Claim · model-written summary
Ambient temperature was the most important variable influencing wheat yield responses to warming.
- Taxon
- wheatTriticum aestivume1
- Treatment
- ambient temperaturee2
- Outcome
- yield in response to warminge2
Not reportedDirection
Organisms pictured · Representative pictures of the matched species, not figures from the paper.
Verbatim
e1“For wheat, however, yield responses to warming varied”
e2“Of these factors, ambient temperature was the most important variable influencing yield in response to warming”
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